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Technical indicators: neutral to bullish immediate term / neutral to bearish medium term

Oil prices were falling in the morning, market participants are waiting for important US unemployment figures in the afternoon. Should the data not meet the market's expectations, oil prices will continue to fall. If the WTI crude's 85.00 dollar support should be breached, the contract is seen hitting 83.00 dollars still today. Fears of a double-dip recession in the USA will keep weighing on commodity prices and the euro. After their freefall in the morning, oil futures started to rise on a retreating dollar. ICE Gasoil has already breached its first resistance. ICE Brent and NYMEX Crude oil are also approaching their first resistance lines.

After having traded in a narrow range in electronic morning trading, Yesterday, oil futures started falling already ahead of the opening of NYMEX session, burdened by a constantly rising dollar against euro and the bearish technical constellation. When US jobless data could not convince market participants of a recovery of the economy and European and US equity markets literally collapsed, the whole oil complex slumped and more and more technical selling orders were triggered. The WTI crude fell below 90 dollars as analysts had forecast earlier in the day, slumping to a low of 85.23 dollars, the lowest level for the most active contract since February and heading for its biggest weekly drop since early May. The Brent also lost considerable ground, dropping nearly 6 percent and settling below 107.00 orders.

ICE gasoil for August delivery settled at 934.00 dollars on Thursday. This was 20.25 dollars below Wednesday's settlement. With some 75,000 contracts the traded volume was above average.

The stochastic indicator remains bearish at NYMEX and ICE chart. When all support lines were breached yesterday, more downward potential was unlocked and all short-term downtrend channels are erased. Should the WTI crude breach its 85.00 dollar support today, analysts see the contract fall as low as 83.00 dollars still before the weekend. Yet markets are meanwhile oversold which may lead to an upward correction in the days to come. Still, as long as the RSI remains below the 30% line and the lines of the Stochastic do not cross, upward momentum will be limited. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 85.20 dollars, its first resistance at 87.00 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 108.00 dollars, its first support is at 106.50 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access losing: Oil futures are in consolidation in Asian trading and Globex electronic exchange this morning, WTI crude hovering near its lowest level in about five-and-a-half months, still suffering from Thursday's hefty losses. Market participants are covering some of their short positions ahead of the weekend. The traded volume is significantly above average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 4-8)

380 cst $674
180 cst $705
MDO $995

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 4-8)

380 cst $677
180 cst $608
MDO $999

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is dropping like a stone with WTI -$6.76. Singapore paper is plummeting as well, losing with -$30.45 for 180cst and -$29.55 for 380cst for Aug, and for Sep 180 cst -$31.00 and -$29.60 for 180cst with MGO Aug contracts at -$6.09 and for Sep at -$6.20. The cargo market is tracking crude and paper, but less firm with 180cst -$11.42, 380cst -$11.38 and MGO -$1.83.

The Singapore fuel oil markets soften by another $11.00 during the Platts window yesterday tracking the softer crude. The delivered premiums were up ranging $7.00 to $9.50 above cargo prices yesterday as demand improved on the softer prices recently. Bunker fuel swaps were assessed app. $13.00 down following general trend in the market. This morning both markets continue trading lower.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $639
180 cst $651
MDO $912

Fujairah (delivered indications 5-8)

380 cst $667
180 cst $698
MDO $1058

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 626
(1.0 %) :$ 661
180cst: $ 653
(1.0 %):$ 691
MGO 0.1%S: $ 930