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Technical indicators: neutral to bearish immediate term / bullish medium term

Oil prices hovered below $99 a barrel Friday in Asia ahead of key jobs data from June that could shed light on the strength of the U.S. economy. Also the euro’s fall against the dollar in the morning eased put pressure on the oil prices. The euro started to progress against the dollar Yesterday after European Central Bank's offer to provide liquidity to hard-pressed Portugal regardless of its ratings, which were cut to junk status by Moody's this week. The ECB also signalled a further tightening was likely this year, after announcing a widely expected hike. Yet analysts warned, the road ahead for the euro remains rocky. Oil prices hovered below $99 a barrel Friday in Asia ahead of key jobs data from June that could shed light on the strength of the U.S. economy.

In the face of the important economic data published yesterday in the afternoon, oil futures traded calm on Thursday morning, as was expected. The API's estimate of oil inventories and a slightly bullish technical analysis led to a steady tendency and a testing of first resistance lines. Larger jumps in prices did not occur before the publishing of clearly positive US employment data, however. A decrease in initial jobless claims and a surprising quantity of created jobs in private economy hint at a recovery of the US' economy as well as at a raise in oil demand. Oil futures breached important key resistances as the Euro returned from it's intra-day lows on investors' growing risk appetite. Technical buying orders initiated the price rallye in the afternoon. The DOE data published at 5 p.m. were seen as slightly bullish as well, lifting the complex once more. Therefore oil futures settled near their intra-day highs at night. Only NYMEX Crude Oil was not able to keep this pace until late in the evening, supposedly du to less-than-expected draws in NYMEX Crude Oil stocks.

ICE Gasoil contract for July settled at 960.75 dollars on Thursday. This was 31.25 dollars above Wednesday's settlement. With some 44,600 contracts, the traded volume was slightly below average.

The stochastic indicator is still slightly bullish regarding the ICE, yet also clearly overbought. Given the considerably overbought situation, a downward correction within the steep up-trends is very likely. Due to yesterday evening's significant price jumps, chart analysts also expect some profit taking this morning to consolidate risk positions ahead of the US employment statistics. With the key resistances breached there has been created new upward potential, however. Chart analysts see the mark of 120 dollars as Brent's next target. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 98.00 dollars, its first resistance at 99.45 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 118.70 dollars, its first support is at 115.50 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Acces losing. Oil futures slightly retreated during electronic trading, as there is already some profit taking and market participant are liquidating smaller short positions. The volume traded at NYMEX is currently below average. Investors wait for the opening of the European markets and for further US employment data to be published in the afternoon.

APIs: crude oil -3.2; distillates -1.6; gasoline -1.9 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -0.2%

DOEs: crude oil -0.9; distillates -0.2; gasoline -0.6 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +0.3%

Forecasts: Crude oil -2.4; distillates +0.9; gasoline +0.2 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 7-7)

380 cst $641
180 cst $672
MDO $954

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 7-7)

380 cst $643
180 cst $675
MDO $958

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is gaining bullish momentum with WTI +$1.12. Singapore paper is tracking crude, gaining with +$12.70 for 180 cst and +$13.30 for 380 cst for Jul, and for Aug 180 cst +$13.35 and 380cst +$13.35 with MGO Jul contracts at +$3.45 and for Aug at +$3.46. The cargo market is starting to react to crude and paper, gaining with 180cst +$6.27, 380cst +$7.95 and MGO +$1.82.

The Singapore fuel oil markets extended gains; assessed up by $6.00- 8.00 during the Platts window yesterday tracking crude. The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory reported a draw of -1.45 mbbl to 19.18 mbbl the recent decline in prices have attracted buying. The delivered premiums remain at around $10.50 above cargo prices yesterday. This morning both markets trading down.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $672
180 cst $684
MDO $967

Fujairah (delivered indications 8-7)

380cst: $674
180cst: $703
MGO: $1066

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst :$ 636
(1.0 %) :$ 693
180cst :$ 666
(1.0 %) :$ 723
MGO 0.1%S: $ 960