---

Technical indicators: neutral to bullish

During early morning trade, oil futures retreated. Currently they are recovering, breaching the first resistances. Momentum is provided by stock exchange. Investors expect China to take measures corresponding to the „current inflationary pressure“, which the Bank of China is seen to counteract with a rate rise. This might reduce economic growth as well as the demand for crude oil.

Oil futures traded slightly higher at ICE and NYMEX yesterday morning. Given the very thin trade, prices retreated, reaching their intra-day lows in the evening. The rating agency Standard & Poor's announcement to possibly assess the Greek debt-conversion as default weighed on the Euro in the afternoon, making way for downward corrections throughout the complex. Due to the holiday in the USA, the traded volume was very little, however. As Investors consolidated smaller positions time and again, oil prices remained within a tight range, without testing any resistances or supports.

ICE Gasoil contract for July settled at 915.75 dollars on Monday. This was 6.00 dollars above Friday's settlement. With some 19,700 contracts, the traded volume was far below average.

The stochastic indicator turns bearish in the overbought area, giving the market a selling signal. Given the long US weekend dynamics upward were not sufficient for NYMEX WTI crude to breach the key resistance at 95.85 dollars. Due to thin trade showing no clear direction, technical analysis turned around. Thus analysts expect some profit taking in the morning. Until the publishing of US inventories data, momentum will mainly be provided by the Euro/Dollar parity. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 94.00 dollars, its first resistance at 95.45 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 112.15 dollars, its first support is at 111.00 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Acces losing. Oil futures retreat during electronic morning trading on some profit taking caused by the falling Euro. Given the holiday in the USA, Sunday night's orders are only carried out today. Thus, the volume at NYMEX currently is far above average. Market participants wait for the opening of the European markets as well as for further momentum provided by stock and foreign exchange.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 4-7)

380 cst $636
180 cst $666
MDO $937

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 4-7)

380 cst $638
180 cst $668
MDO $941

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is turning bearish again, losing with WTI -$0.27. Singapore paper is bearish still, losing with -$5.70 for 180 cst and -$5.25 for 380 cst for Jul, and for Aug 180 cst -$4.75 and 380cst -$4.75 with MGO Jul contracts at -$0.99 and for Aug at -$0.99. The cargo market is tracking crude and paper with 180cst -$5.37, 380cst -$5.32 and MGO +$0.23.

The Singapore fuel oil market fell more than $5.00 during the Platts window yesterday. The Singapore heavy residual inventory saw a marginal draw of -0.15 mbbl to 20.63 mbbl. There were no significant changes to the inventory amidst softer demand from the bunker sector as well as the recent decline in outright prices that encouraged sellers to hold. The delivered premiums were around $11.5 above cargo prices yesterday on stronger demand as outright prices came off. This morning both markets are trading lower.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $648
180 cst $657
MDO $925

Fujairah (delivered indications 5-7)

380cst: $642
180cst: $677
MGO: $1040

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst :$ 621
(1.0 %) :$ 679
180cst :$ 640
(1.0 %) :$ 701
MGO 0.1%S: $ 919