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Technical indicators: neutral to bearish

After a short recovery in European trading Friday, the euro fell against the dollar this morning in East Asia after European governments failed to agree on releasing a loan payment to spare Greece from default. Oil prices fell to below $92 a barrel this morning and a strengthening U.S. dollar has helped drag crude down from almost $115 early last.

Prices traded in a narrow lateral range in early morning last Friday before collapsing on technical selling, triggered by the strong US dollar and lingering worries over Greek's financial situation. When support lines were breached, more selling orders were triggered. The sudden fall in the dollar helped prices back up at midday, gasoline futures at the NYMEX paring all of their losses but crude oil and heating oil remaining depressed. The release of a weak US consumer confidence in the afternoon, along with fears that Greece might go bankrupt, rekindled demand worries and the WTI crude hit a four-month low below 92.00 dollars a barrel.

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 940.25 dollars on Friday. This was 8.50 dollars below Thursday's settlement. With some 71,200 contracts, the traded volume was above average.

The Stochastic indicator at the gasoil, brent and WTI charts remains bearish this morning, tempting technical analysts to forecast more technical selling and profit taking today. Friday's intraday lows are seen hit. The resistance line of the short-term downtrend will limit the upward potential that might be released by some short covering ahead of DOE data on Wednesday. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 91.00 dollars, the first resistance at 95.00 dollars. Brent's first resistance is seen at 113.70 dollars, its first support is at 111.05 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access gaining. Oil prices are falling in East Asia and Globex electronic trading this morning, WTI crude dropping below 92.00 dollars, weighed down by concerns that the Greek debt crisis and sluggish U.S. economic growth will slow oil demand. The traded volume is about on average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 17-6)

380 cst $637
180 cst $667
MDO $973

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 17-6)

380 cst $639
180 cst $669
MDO $977

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is slowing in its losses, losing still with WTI -$0.75. Singapore paper is ahead of crude, gaining now with +$2.80 for 180 cst and +$2.95 for 380 cst for Jul, and for Aug 180 cst +$2.10 and 380cst +$2.15 with MGO Jul contracts at -$0.11 and for Aug at -$0.06. The cargo market is losing still with 180cst -$11.67, 380cst -$10.69 and MGO -$3.43.

The Singapore fuel oil market extended its drop by more than $10.50 during the Platts window last Friday tracking fast dropping crude. Bunker demand is said to be healthy as buyers take advantage of the lower outright prices before the weekend. The delivered premiums crept up to around $10.00 above cargo prices last Friday. Bunker fuel swaps closed mixed. Both Rotterdam and Singapore papers gained a few cents at the front months however, lost app. $1.00/mt at the backend. Forward curve maintains a strongly backwardated structure with Cal 2012 prices trading well below spot and front month figures. Both markets are trading lower this morning.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $645
180 cst $659
MDO $935

Fujairah (delivered indications 20-6)

380cst: $642
180cst: $673
MGO: $1025

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst :$ 622
(1.0 %) :$ 667
180cst :$ 648
(1.0 %) :$ 692
MGO 0.1%S: $ 941