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Technical indicators: neutral to bearish immediate term / neutral to bullish medium term

Oil prices eased this morning on profit taking, as analysts had expected. The weak performance of the European equity markets also weighs on oil. Not much market volatility is expected ahead of US GDP and jobs data.

After consolidating on their low level Yesterday morning, oil prices were set to rise at midday, but fell back after first resistance lines could not be breached for good. Only after the release of the Department of Energy's inventory data, though bearish, did oil futures breach several resistance lines across the complex. Technically driven buying orders helped oil to new highs.

ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 937.00 dollars Wednesday night. This was 17.75 dollars above Tuesday's settlement. Volume with some 62,400 deals above average.

The Stochastic indicator on the ICE charts and the WTI crude is slightly bullish today, but set to enter overbought territory. When oil prices breached the technical triangle yesterday, technical buying orders were triggered, but the upward margin was used by Wednesday's rally so that there is not much upward momentum left today. Technical analysts forecast that prices will ease on profit taking in electronic morning trade as a technical reaction to Wednesday's massive gains. But the extent of a possible downward correction depends on the movement of the U.S. dollar. Should the greenback keep easing, oil prices would remain on their high level. The WTI chart shows a rather flat uptrend within which prices range at the upper limit of the channel. More price increases are only seen, should the WTI crude breach the 102.00 dollar resistance. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 100.00 dollars, the first resistance at 102.00 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 115.50 dollars, its first support is at 112.70 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access gaining. Oil prices consolidated on their high level in East Asia and Globex electronic trading this morning, WTI crude holding above 101.00 dollars for a barrel, taking their breath after Wednesday's late rally amid a strongly rising euro and a falling dollar. The traded volume is above average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 25-5)

380 cst $626
180 cst $661
MDO $953

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 25-5)

380 cst $628
180 cst $663
MDO $956

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is bouncing back up with +$2.50 Singapore paper is gaining bullish momentum with +$15.30 for 180 cst and +$15.70 for 380 cst for Jun, and for Jul 180 cst +$15.10 and 380cst +$15.05 with MGO Jun contracts at +$3.75 and for Jul at +$3.91 The cargo market is slowing, reacting to Yesterday's weakness with 180cst +$4.27 380cst +$4.80 and MGO -$0.18.

The Asian fuel oil market strengthened for a second session on Wednesday as China's Brightoil intensified its buying spree. Fuel oil's cracks rose to a discount narrower than $8.00 a barrel to Dubai crude for the first time in nearly three weeks, despite slightly higher crude benchmarks, while its prompt time spread was steady at a week-high backwardation of around $4.00. The Singapore bunker differential, the price spread between ex-wharf marine fuel prices and fuel oil cargo values, was valued higher at a premium of $5.35, up $2.10, as sellers lifted offer prices amid higher bunker fuel prices at $632.00 a tonne. This morning both markets are trading slightly lower.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $648
180 cst $691
MDO $955

Fujairah (delivered indications 26-5)

380cst: $651
180cst: $671
MGO: $1030

Rotterdam

Yesterday in the MOC hsfo was traded between 603-605 usd and lsfo between 630-637 usd.

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $621
(1.0%): $649
180cst: $644
(1.0%): $675 (very low avails)
MGO 0.1%S: $946