Tue 24 May 2011, 13:25 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Technical indicators: neutral to bullish immediate term / neutral to bearish medium term

Oil prices keep rising this afternoon, breaching first resistance lines across the complex on technical buying and a weaker dollar against euro.

Yesterday, oil futures settled lower in London and New York, pressured by worries over China's economic growth and the European financial crisis. Prices started falling in electronic morning trading, weighed down by the stronger dollar and technically driven selling orders. The gasoil and the brent contract at the ICE and eventually also the WTI fell through first support lines, but the strong support at 96.35 dollars on the WTI chart put an end to the price collapse. With the exception of NYMEX gasoline that pared all of its earlier losses during the session in New York, oil hesitated to recover.

ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 899.50 dollars Monday night. This was 9.75 dollars below Friday's settlement. Volume with some 40,600 deals about on average.

The Stochastic indicator turned from bullish to bearish Monday after a selling signal was triggered. Today, analysts forecast a technical upward correction in morning trading. The euro/dollar parity will remain the most important factor for today. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 96.35 dollars, the first resistance at 99.75 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 111,65 dollars, its first support is at 108.60 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access gaining. Oil prices bounced back in East Asia and Globex electronic trading this morning in the wake of a strengthening euro as traders are covering their short positions after oil's losses on Monday. WTI crude recovered from a low of 96.65 dollars per barrel, trimming the biggest loss in more than a week. The traded volume is far above average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 23-5)

380 cst $605
180 cst $641
MDO $938

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 23-5)

380 cst $608
180 cst $643
MDO $941

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is jumping back up, countering Yesterday's losses with +$1.13 Singapore paper is reflecting it with +$7.95 for 180 cst and +$8.35 for 380 cst for Jun, and for Jul 180 cst +$7.95 and 380cst +$8.35 with MGO Jun contracts at +$1.20 and for Jul at +$1.16 The cargo market is gaining bearish momentum losing with 180cst -$11.18 380cst -$11.68 and MGO -$2.58.

The Asian fuel oil market was steady for a second straight session on Monday, with prompt time spreads holding steady at slightly weaker levels amid the week's thinnest volumes. Reflecting the tighter June market, on both total volumes and on-specification cargoes, PetroChina, Asia's largest player, bought a low-density cargo from an Indian refiner for the first time in five years and at month-high premiums. July Brent was valued at $109.56 a barrel by the Asian close, down $2.44 from the previous close, while fuel oil's cracks improved to a discount of near $8.00 a barrel to Dubai crude. The June and July 180cst swaps were valued at $624.13 and $620.63 a tone, down $10.88-$11.00, or 1.7 percent, for both, by the close. The Singapore bunker differential, the price spread between ex-wharf marine fuel prices and fuel oil cargo values, was valued higher at a premium of $6.45, up $1.90, as sellers held high offers and were not keen to sell amid lower bunker fuel prices lower at $620.00 a tone, down $10.00. This morning both markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $615
180 cst $617
MDO $910

Fujairah (delivered indications 24-5)

380cst: $632
180cst: $656
MGO: $1031

Rotterdam

Yesterday in the MOC hsfo was traded between 585.50-588.50 usd and lsfo between 616.25-625 usd.

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $603
(1.0%): $631
180cst: $637
(1.0%): $668 (very low avails)
MGO 0.1%S: $920

MGO  

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