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Technical indicators: bearish immediate term / bullish medium term

Oil prices are in a narrow range in electronic trading this morning, edging lower at noon as the USD posted modest gains and European stocks fell. Concerns about potential retaliatory attacks following al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden's killing weighed on investor sentiment.

Oil prices slid in electronic morning trading yesterday and the US dollar rebounded from three-year lows as traders took profit after news al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed in a firefight with US forces. Influenced by the bearish technical indicators, futures fell through support lines on technical selling in the process. But while the death of bin Laden could reduce the threat against the United States in the long term, the understanding that the risk premium, which reflects the probability of production outages, hasn't been considerably reduced, helped prices up in the afternoon and above resistance lines during the session in New York. WTI crude hit a new 33-months high. The stronger dollar and profit taking limited the gains and oil prices retreated from intraday highs in after-hour trading.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 1,039.50 dollars Monday night. This was 6.25 dollars above Friday's settlement. Volume with some 21,000 deals far below average as financial markets were closed for "Early May Bank Holiday.

The Stochastic indicator at the brent chart is slightly bearish while the ones at the WTI and the gasoil chart are not giving any clear signals. Oil futures are overbought across the complex, making a small downward correction possible today after long-term resistances could not be breached for good Friday night. After the death of Osama bin Laden, oil prices are edging lower in electronic trading. Should prices fall below Friday's lows, technical selling orders would be triggered, accelerating the downward correction.

U.S.

Nymex Access losing. Oil futures are in a tight lateral range in East Asia and Globex electronic trading this morning, holding their breath after Monday's volatile session. Market participants eye US economic indicators and petroleum inventories later today. The traded volume is on average.

Survey of US petroleum inventories due out tonight at 22:30 (API) and Wednesday at 16:30 (DOE):
crude oil +1.9; distillates +0.8; gasoline +0.3 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 2-5)

380 cst $677
180 cst $712
MDO $1054

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 2-5)

380 cst $680
180 cst $715
MDO $1058

Singapore (closed today due to bank holiday; indications are 29th April's)

Crude is yo-yoing back up with WTI +$0.49 Singapore paper is mirroring crude with +$1.25 for 180 cst and +$1.25 for 380 cst for May, and for Jun 180 cst +$1.00 and 380cst +$1.05 with MGO May contracts at -$0.25 and for Jun at -$0.25 The cargo market is not yet reacting, losing with 180cst -$5.54, 380cst -$5.62 and MGO -$0.75.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $678
180 cst $690
MDO $1048

Fujairah (delivered indications 2-5)

380cst: $676
180cst: $707
MGO: $1050

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $650
(1.0%): $702
180cst: $671
(1.0%): $729 (very low avails)
MGO 0.1%S: $1031