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Technical indicators: neutral to bullish

Oil prices rise in thin electronic trading boosted by the persistent weakness of the US-dollar, according to analysts. ICE gasoil breached the first resistance line, the brent and the WTI resistances are still strong. Should the dollar fall further, these lines could also be breached during NYMEX session. No news in the markets.

Yesterday, after a volatile electronic trade, oil futures rose during NYMEX session, only to shed part of their gains in after-hour trading. While Alaska's crude oil pipeline resumed operations on Monday, restoring the flow of about 500,000 bpd of U.S. crude and limiting WTI's gains, Royal Dutch Shell shut four Brent North Sea oil and natural gas platforms on Saturday and did not have a restart time. While the platforms produce only 20,000 bpd, they add to recent concerns about the availability of crude priced against the London Brent futures contract.

ICE Gasoil February settled at 818.00 dollars (official settlement price) Tuesday night. This was 8.00 dollar above Monday's settlement. Volume with some 71,000 deals above average.

The Stochastic indicator is giving a bearish signal this morning while the RSI entered overbought territory. Yet support lines have proved strong so far and oil prices are still dominated by the movements of the dollar and equity markets. The first support of the WTI crude is seen at 91.00 dollars today, the first resistance at 92.00 dollars. me could also bring about a certain price volatility.

U.S.

NYMEX gaining: Oil prices edged higher in Asian trading hours and electronic Globex trade this morning, supported by a fall in the dollar to two-month lows. The WTI crude is lingering short below 92.00 dollars for a barrel. The traded volume is below average.

Survey of US petroleum inventories data will be released today (one day delayed due to Martin Luther King day) at 22:30, DOE data Thursday at 16:30 crude oil -0.4; distillates +0.5; gasoline +2.2 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization: -0.8%.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 18/1)

380 cst $516
180 cst $539
MDO $788

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 18/1)

380 cst $518
180 cst $546
MDO $793

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is cautiously starting to turn with WTI -$0.06. Singapore paper is gaining bullish momentum with Feb +$2.75 for 180 cst and +$3.50 for 380 cst, and for Mar 180 cst +$2.75 and 380cst +$3.60 with MGO Feb contracts at +$0.50 and for Mar at +$0.38. The cargo market is in line with paper with 180cst +$1.03, 380cst +$2.01 and MGO +$0.34.

The Singapore fuel oil markets were also up by a couple of dollars during the Platts window yesterday. The product tightness in the market eased slightly, however some suppliers still experienced limited finished bunker grade material. Bunker fuel swaps gained a couple of dollars for both 3.5% Rotterdam Barges FOB and Singapore 180cst Cargo FOB at the front of the curve resulting in forward curve backwardation. Today both markets are trading up.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $546
180 cst $554
MDO $830

Fujairah (delivered indications 19/1)

380cst: $544
180cst: $590
MGO: $886

Rotterdam (delivered indications)

Yesterday, (only barge trade deals of >2 KT reported in the MOC): 60KT was traded between 507.50-509.00 with Litasco and Koch as the main sellers to Petroned as the main buyer.

The Asian arbitrage is open still, but a firm backwardation structure in the Singapore market and healthy inlux of Russian blending product are tempering the bullish sentiment. The Med-Asian arbitrage economics also firmed, with an uptick in reported fixtures. The LSFO is still sluggish, could prompt suppliers to opt for LSFO to meet the prompt HSFO demand. More US cargoes expected next month.

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $515
(1.0%): $524
180cst: $528
(1.0%): $539 (very low avails)
MGO 0.1%S: $825