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Technical indicators: bearish immediate term / neutral to bullish medium term

Crude continues to slide this morning, reacting to the disappointing US consumer data yesterday.

Yesterday, having found early support on a weaker dollar, oil prices gave back some gains following the release of economic data from the USA. U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly deteriorated in December, hurt by increasing worries about the jobs market. Yet in a very thin trade, oil's volatility eventually helped it to a slightly higher settlement.

OPEC: contrary earlier statements this year, Kuwait's oil minister stated this week the global economy can withstand crude prices of 100 dollars/barrel, making production increases unlikely.

ICE Gasoil January is expected to open $1.50 higher at 781.00 dollars/ton after settling at 780.25 dollars (official settlement price) Tuesday night. This was 2.75 dollars above Monday's settlement. Volume with some 11.500 deals way below average.

The short-term uptrend is still intact even though prices have lost some of their upward momentum in thin year-end trading. Both Stochastic and RSI indicator remain in overbought territory, the Stochastic gives a bearish signal. WTI crude prices are seen consolidating in the range of 90.30 and 92.00 dollars. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 91,20 dollar today, the first resistance at 91.70 dollars.

U.S.

Survey of NYMEX Trade: Oil prices steadied in Asian trading hours and NYMEX electronic trading this morning. WTI crude still holding above 91.00 dollars for a barrel. The traded volume is below average.

US petroleum inventories: Due to the Christmas holidays, API data will be released Wednesday at 22:30, and DOE is expected on Thursday at 17:00 hrs.

Crude oil: -2.8; distillates: -0.6; gasoline: +1.5 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 28/12)

380 cst $500
180 cst $520
MDO $783

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 28/12)

380 cst $503
180 cst $523
MDO $787

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is bouncing back up with WTI +$0.22 Singapore paper is in mirroring crude with Jan +$2.01 for 180 cst and +$2.80 for 380 cst, and for Feb 180 cst +$2.00 and 380 cst +$2.24 with MGO Jan contracts at -$0.48 and for Feb at +$0.50. The cargo market is starting to react to Yesterday's losses with 180 cst -$3.57 , 380 cst -$2.94 and MGO -$0.76.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $509
180 cst $519
MDO $789

Fujairah (delivered indications 29/12)

380cst: $513
180cst: $543
MGO: $805

Rotterdam (delivered indications)

Due to the Holiday season, no updated information is available on the MOC trade.

The NWE HSFO markets are well supplied. Although there have been three VLCC’s reported for December loading and one for January, the softening Singapore market has put the arbitrage economics in the red. The HSFO Med markets are picking up, with domestic demand discouraging arbitrage fixtures. For the LSFO there are some cargoes seen moved from NWE to the Med, although the arbitrage is not considered to be open yet. The five weeks maintenance shut down of the Fos Sur Mer ExxonMobil refinery, scheduled mid Jan may tip the balance. The NWE LSFO markets are also still well supplied, with stored product entering the market and product arriving out of the US. The continuing cold weather however is lending some support.

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $493
(1.5%): $506
180cst: $509
(1.5%): $523 (very low avails)
DMB: N/A
DMA: N/A
MGO 0.1%S: $783