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Technical indicators: neutral

Oil prices are trading higher on a weaker dollar and cold weather conditions in the US and Europe, pushing it to its highest level in two years.

Positive US economy data, resulting in a stronger dollar, limited oil's gains last night after resistance lines were breached and technical buying orders triggered, as technical analysts had forecast. The cold weather in the United States and Europe has spurred the rally. The bullish DOE data did not have much impact on prices, possibly because the DOE published a surprise build in gasoline stocks.

ICE gasoil Januari is expected to open more or less unchanged at about 781.50 dollars/ton after settling at 781.00 dollars (official settlement price) Wednesday night. This was 4.25 dollars above Monday's settlement. Volume with some 41.200 deals about on average.

The lateral trendchannel of the crude contract is still intact, yet prices have settled at the upper limits of the range. The 90.00 dollar resistance was temporarily breached Tuesday and technical analysts predict another attempt for today. Above this level, technical buying orders will be triggered. Both Stochastic and RSI indicator give bullish signals this morning. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 89.00 dollars today, the first resistance at 90.10 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access: Oil prices are supported in Asian trading hours and NYMEX electronic trading this morning, the easing dollar and economic optimism lending support. WTI crude is holding above 90.00 dollars a barrel. No news in the markets. The traded volume is very thin.

APIs: crude oil -5.796; distillates +0.016; gasoline -2.905 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -0.7%

DOEs: crude oil -5.333; distillates -0.589; gasoline +2.400 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -0.3%

Forecasts: crude oil -1.1; distillates -0.8; gasoline +0.5 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -0.2%

Survey of US natural gas storage volumes according to EIA to be released later today for the week till Dec 17th: -181.00 billion cubic feet vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 22/12)

380 cst $499
180 cst $519
MDO $773

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 22/12)

380 cst $502
180 cst $522
MDO $786

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is cooling with WTI +$0.29. Singapore paper is mixed with Jan -$1.00 for 180 cst and -$2.05 for 380 cst, and for Feb 180 cst -$0.95 and 380cst -$2.00 with MGO Jan contracts at +$0.15 and for Jan at +$0.14. The cargo market is slowing as well with 180cst +$1.52, 380cst +$0.82 and MGO +$1.44.

The Singapore fuel oil market rose only marginally range $0.50 to $1.50 during the Platts window Yesterday. The sentiment remains weak as fundamentals look balanced and general trades are expected to slow during the festive season. The delivered bunker premiums were $1.00 to $2.00 above cargo prices Yesterday. This morning markets are are trading down.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $509
180 cst $519
MGO $784

Fujairah (delivered indications 23/12)

380cst: $509
180cst: $540
MGO: $800

Rotterdam (delivered indications)

Yesterday (Only barge trade deals of >2 KT reported) In the MOC 52KT was traded between 489.00-491.00 with Petroned and Gunvor as the main sellers to Cargill and Koch as the main buyers.

The NWE HSFO markets are well supplied, although the open Eastern arbitrage supports the local markets. Three VLCC's are due for loading next week. The HSFO Med markets are picking up, with domestic demand discouraging arbitrage fixtures. For the LSFO there are some cargoes seen moved from NWE to the Med, although the arbitrage is not considered to be open yet. The five weeks maintenance shut down of the Fos Sur Mer ExxonMobil refinery, scheduled mid Jan may tip the balance. The NWE LSFO markets are also still well supplied, with stored product entering the market and product arriving out of the US. The continuing cold weather however is lending some support.

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $494
(1.0%): $507
180cst: $509
(1.0%): $526 (very low avails)
DMB: N/A
MGO 0.1%S: $785