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Technical indicators:

Oil prices kept rising in late NYMEX session and after hours trading last night to its highest level in seven weeks after positive Chinese and US economy data hit the market. Crude oil is headed for the biggest weekly gain since July and capped the largest monthly increase since May 2009, after the purchasing managers’ index in China rose at the fastest pace in four months in September and US data signalled a recovery of the economy. Oil prices breached more resistance lines during Thursday's rallye after a bunch of positive fundamental news hit the market. The short-term uptrend has become steeper, see graphics below. Both RSI and Stochastic indicators are in overbought territory today, making a downward correction more and more likely. But the fundamental situation is more observed than technical constellations for the time being. European stocks opened higher today, led by basic resources which received a boost from encouraging Chinese manufacturing data. China's official manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for September improved to 53.8, compared with 51.7 in August, first WTI crude support line at 79.50 dollars today, first resistance line at 82.00 dollars. Analysts see oil prices continue to rise in morning trading. In the afternoon, more US economy data will give direction.

NYMEX crude is set to close September with the strongest gain in seven months after US stockpiles declined while a weak dollar lifted most commodities. Today much will depend on US economy data to be released later today.

ICE Gasoil October is expected to open +10,00 to +11,50 dollars at about 717,50 dollars/ton after settling at 706,75 dollars (official settlement price) Thursday night. This was 19,00 dollars above Wednesday's settlement. Volume with some 53.700 deals above average.

The Chicago purchasing manager index (PMI) stands at 60,40 in September, when August's reading was 56,70. Economists had predicted the index would fall to 56,00. Initial unemployment claims fell by 16,000 to 453,000 in the week ended Sept. 25. New claims for the previous week, ended Sept. 18, were revised upward to 469,000 from 465,000. Economists had predicted new claims would fall by only 5,000. Gross domestic product grew at a 1.7% annual rate April through June. The estimate released Thursday was the third made by the government for second-quarter GDP.

U.S.

Nymex Access : Oil futures are edging higher in Asian trading hours and NYMEX electronic trading this morning, extending Thursday's gains. Crude oil rose back above 80.00 dollars for a barrel to a fresh seven-week high after stronger-than-expected U.S. and Chinese economic data raised hopes of a demand recovery. No news in the markets. The traded volume is above average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 30-9)

380cst: $442
180cst: $462
MGO: $732

Very tight avails for 180cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 30-9)

380cst: $444
180cst: $464
MGO: $735

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs local time)

Crude is continuing to surge with WTI +$1.77. Singapore paper is fully engaging in the move now with 180cst +$11.95 and 380cst +$12.30 for Oct, and Nov 180 cst +$11.15 and 380cst +$11.20 with MGO Oct contracts +$2.18 and for Nov at +$2.31. The cargo market is starting on the bull run with 180cst +$6,61, 380cst +$5,66 and MGO +$1.91.

Papers in Singapore were a little weaker influenced by a physical market adding app. 50 cents less than in Rotterdam. This morning both markets are trading up pricing in a recent advance of crude futures.

High premiums for prompt deliveries:

380cst: $470
180cst: $462
MGO: $699

Fujairah (delivered indications 1/10)

380cst: $466
180cst: $487
MGO: $727

Rotterdam

Yesterday (Only barge trade deals of >2 KT reported) 86KT was traded in the MOC between 437.50-440.00 with Litasco and Mercuria as the main sellers and Petroned and Mercuria as the main buyers.

Sources in the Northwest European high sulfur fuel oil market Thursday described the Rotterdam to Singapore arbitrage economics as breakeven to marginal for a December arrival. The steep 180cst contango in the Asian market would though help support adding that the move on the physical market would be due to a lack of alternative outlets for M-100 length in Europe rather than to lock in any profit. Blending in Rotterdam is not looking feasible so an outlet is preferable. Singapore is though over-supplied and end-user demand insufficient to absorb the length and so movers will be looking to store it. Shell’s 420,000 b/d Pernis refinery in Rotterdam is due to return from a period of scheduled maintenance by mid-October. Europe’s largest refinery began the maintenance September. With Pernis’ reemergence also comes an expectation that the NWE light cycle oil (LCO) market will see a pick up in supply. However, the cost of LCO was still high, being heard at 75% to 80% of front-month ICE gas oil futures, Thursday, keeping blending margins unattractive. The low sulfur fuel oil market remained well-supplied and, with a weak contango structure, market participants had little incentive to move the oil out of storage in ARA. The hi-lo differential remained weak at $12/mt Thursday, although $1/mt higher on the day.

380cst: $459
(1.0%): $476
180cst: $476
(1.0%): $502
DMB: N/A
MGO 0.1%S: $724