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Technical indicators: neutral to bullish

Oil prices slumped unexpectedly in late NYMEX session in what analysts called an overdone selloff. Some bearish US data tempted traders to get rid of their long positions. The technical correction of Thursday's overdone losses having already taken place in early morning trading, analysts expect oil prices to remain in a tight range for the rest of the day. US data this afternoon might give some direction, but investors should be cautious ahead of the weekend.

The medium-term uptrend is still intact after WTI crude failed to breach the 74.00 dollar support line yesterday which marked the lower limit of the uptrend channel. A small short-term downtrend has formed within the existing uptrend, see chart below. The Stochastic indicator is still giving bearish signals this morning, the RSI remains in neutral territory. First WTI crude resistance line seen at 75,40 dollars today, first support line at 74,40 dollars.

ICE Gasoil October is expected to open 1,00 to 2,50 dollars lower at about 671,00 dollars/ton after settling at 672,75 dollars (official settlement price) Thursday night. This was 0,75 dollars below Wednesday's settlement. Volume with some 47.100 deals slightly above average.

OPEC seaborne oil exports are seen falling by 130.000 b/d in the four weeks before October 2nd, so Tanker Tracker Oil Movements.

U.S.

Nymex Access trade: Oil prices are rising in Asian trading hours and NYMEX electronic trading this morning, paring some of Thursday's hefty losses. WTI crude is heading to regain the 75.00 dollar mark. No news in the markets. The traded volume is on average.

USA: Philly Fed index stands at -0,70 in September, when economists were expecting the index unchanged. Initial unemployment claims declined by 3,000 to 450,000 in the week ended Sept. 11. New claims for the previous week, were revised upward slightly to 453,000 from 451,000. Economists had expected new claims would rise by 9,000. The index of producer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% for finished goods in August from July. In July, wholesale prices were up 0.2%. The U.S. current account deficit registered a shortfall of 123.3 billion dollars in the second quarter. The current account deficit for the first quarter was revised to 109.2 billion dollars from the initially estimated 109.0 billion dollars %. A first estimate of Euro zone trade balance shows a surplus of 6.7 billion euros in July compared to +11.9 billion a year ago.

US natural gas storage volumes according to EIA for the week til September 10th, 2010: +103,00 bcf (billion cubic feet) at 3.267 bcf vs 3.164 bcf the previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 16-9)

380cst: $435
180cst: $455
MGO: $715
Very tight avails for 180cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 15-9)

380cst: $438
180cst: $458
MGO: $718

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs local time)

Crude is starting to change direction slightly with WTI now only -$0.09. Singapore paper is reflecting the change in direction with 180 cst +$1.55 and 380cst +$1.70 for Oct, and Nov 180 cst +$1.60 and 380cst +$1.60 with MGO Oct contracts at parity and for Nov at -$0.01. The cargo market is following with 180cst +$1.46, 380cst +$2.05 and MGO +$0.16.

The Singapore fuel oil price was up by app. $1.0 - 2.5/mt during the Platts window yesterday. The Singapore demand looks weak and soft. Cargo premium looks weak as well coming off to a discount of more than -$3.50/mt. Similarly, the delivered bunker premiums came off to $0.75 - 1.25/mt above the cargo. Singapore papers lost app. $1.75/mt along the curve. This morning markets are trading slightly up.

High premiums for prompt deliveries:

380cst: $446
180cst: $455
MGO: $666

Fujairah (delivered indications 16/9)

380cst: $445
MGO: $725

Rotterdam

Yesterday (Only barge trade deals of >2 KT reported) 30KT was traded in the MOC between 430.75-433.50 with Litasco as the main seller to Gunvor and Totsa as the main buyers.

NWE HSFO markets are firming on the back of reported fixtures, opening the Eastern arbitrage. The US influx dried up, and local suppliers are reluctant to meet short demand, to fully profit from the anticipated contango. The Med has seen some influx out of NWE, but the margins are very tight. The LSFO markets are balanced, with some Med demand surfacing, but tight on on-spec EU qualified product.

380cst: $435
(1.0%): $465
180cst: $454
(1.0%): $486
DMB: N/A
MGO 0.1%S: $675