Image credit: A/S Global Risk Management

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Oil prices continued October's downtrend last night and so far today. Intraday volatility is high.

Even though we are now in November, the month where U.S. sanctions against Iran kick in, October's downtrend seems to spill over to November.

News of OPEC oil producers lifting production to a 2-year high weighs on prices. Likely OPEC production in October was around 33.31 mio. barrels per day, an increase of around 390,000 barrels per day compared to September. As a recent report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates U.S. crude oil production to 11.3 mio. barrels per day in August, the U.S. is now the world's largest oil producer followed by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

From 4 November, i.e. Sunday, the wind-down period for importing Iranian oil ends and sanctions are reimposed. The U.S. government has, however, granted waivers to eight countries, i.e. they can continue importing Iranian oil after 4 November. Among the 8 are South Korea, Japan and India. Compared to a year ago, Iranian crude oil exports have already dropped around 700,000 barrels per day to around 1.7 mio. barrels per day - barrels which need to be offset by OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers.

Talks between the U.S. and China are "moving along nicely", according to the U.S. president. Leaders of the two countries will meet later this month in Argentina in connection with the G20 leaders summit. Over the last months, both countries have imposed tariffs against each other on hundreds of goods. The trade war has sparked fears of global economic growth slowdown.

Turning to economic data, today sees a row of European Manufacturing PMIs, U.S. Non-farm Payrolls and unemployment rate figures.