Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Brent crude was up 45 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $84.36 a barrel by 06:29 GMT, having fallen as low as $82.66 in the previous session before largely recovering. Brent hit a four-year high of $86.74 last week, and U.S. WTI crude futures rose 41 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $74.70 a barrel. Shock horror, Iran exports are down. Latest figures putting it at 1.1 million barrels per day, down from 2.5 million barrels a day in April. Conveniently, there is also the news of a partial shutdown of operations in the Gulf of Mexico with a new storm bearing down upon the region. And if that wasn't enough to have the bulls elatedly firing champagne corks everywhere, technically we are also bullish with the 50, 100, and 200 period moving averages moving upwards. The reaction of the market this morning has been pretty strong - not just on crude, but also on cracks and EW. The mantra at the moment is when an unstoppable force meets a very moveable object - and I wish the moveable object the very best - it's not going to end well. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Oct 08)

The front crack opened at -10.15, weakening to -10.20, before strengthening to -9.70, closing -9.75. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.05.

Cash premiums for spot cargoes of 380 cSt high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) slipped on Monday amid weaker deal values in the Singapore physical trading window but the market was still supported by relatively tight availabilities of prompt cargoes, trade sources said.

Premiums for 380 cSt cargoes slipped to a three-session low of $5.97 a tonne to Singapore quotes on Monday, down from a more than two-month high of $6.27 a tonne on Friday.

Economic data/events (Times are UK)

* 11am: U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism, Sept.

* S&P Global Platts North American Crude Oil Exports Summit, Houston

* Basra Mega Projects conference, Istanbul, 1st day of 2

* Oil & Money conference starts in London, 1st day of 3, with Qatar Petroleum CEO Saad Al Kaabi, Shell CEO Ben van Beurden, Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, among others

Singapore 380 cSt

Nov18 - 501.50 / 503.50

Dec18 - 495.25 / 497.25

Jan19 - 488.75 / 490.75

Feb19 - 482.75 / 484.75

Mar19 - 477.25 / 479.25

Apr19 - 471.75 / 473.75

Q1-19 - 483.00 / 485.00

Q2-19 - 466.75 / 468.75

Q3-19 - 445.00 / 447.50

Q4-19 - 407.50 / 410.00

CAL19 - 446.00 / 449.00

CAL20 - 372.50 / 378.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Nov18 - 508.25 / 510.25

Dec18 - 503.00 / 505.00

Jan19 - 498.50 / 500.50

Feb19 - 493.00 / 495.00

Mar19 - 487.75 / 489.75

Apr19 - 483.00 / 485.00

Q1-19 - 493.00 / 495.00

Q2-19 - 478.75 / 480.75

Q3-19 - 459.75 / 462.25

Q4-19 - 428.50 / 431.00

CAL19 - 460.00 / 463.00

CAL20 - 394.00 / 400.00

Rotterdam 3.5%

Nov18 - 471.75 / 473.75

Dec18 - 466.00 / 468.00

Jan19 - 461.75 / 463.75

Feb19 - 457.75 / 459.75

Mar19 - 453.75 / 455.75

Apr19 - 449.50 / 451.50

Q1-19 - 457.75 / 459.75

Q2-19 - 444.50 / 446.50

Q3-19 - 421.25 / 423.75

Q4-19 - 381.25 / 383.75

CAL19 - 422.00 / 425.00

CAL20 - 353.25 / 359.25