Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Brent crude futures rose to $81.69 a barrel shortly after 06:00 GMT, a level not seen since November 2014. They were still at $81.50 at 06:55 GMT, up 30 cents, or 0.4 percent from their last close, and U.S. WTI crude futures were at $72.28 a barrel, up 20 cents, or 0.3 percent from their last settlement. This market has the will to go higher, the technicals have been pointing to it for a while, and now it has the excuse with the Iran sanctions and resist OPEC's output increase to rise to the lofty heights it's currently at. Yes, some of Iran's European buyers are looking at ways they can circumvent payments for a continued supply of oil, but let's be honest, the big Asian buyers have fallen in line with the U.S. without too many protestations. An estimated 1-1.5 million barrels will be taken out of supply, which gives OPEC a nice little bit of breathing room to dish out some supply increases. Think like your large Uncle Joe, post a big family meal, polo shirt with a couple of gravy stains down it, belt holding in a bulging gut. Imagine having the option of loosening a belt buckle, an attractive prospect, the only problem being it will be a difficult task to do it tighter again. And with that in mind, it's breakfast time. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Sep 24)

The front crack opened at -11.10, strengthening to -11.05, before weakening to -11.40, closing -11.30. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.30.

ash premiums for cargoes of Asia's mainstay 380 cSt fuel oil rose to a one-month high on Monday as expectations of tighter supplies in October continued to support the market, trade sources said.

Premiums for 380 cSt cargoes rose to $5.90 a tonne to Singapore quotes in Monday, up from $5.36 a tonne in the previous session and their highest since Aug. 24.

Firm fuel oil demand and shrinking output amid refinery maintenance and upgrades is expected to limit arbitrage flows into Asia from October.

Renewed U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude oil and oil products that start in November are also contributing to lower fuel oil supplies.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 2pm: U.S. FHFA House Price Index, July

* 2pm: S&P Core Logistics, July

* 3pm: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Sept.

* 3pm: U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Sept.

* 9:30pm: API issues weekly U.S. oil inventory report

* Rio Oil & Gas conference, 2nd day of 4

* Platts APPEC Conference, 2nd day of 3

* Total Investor Day

* Russia Urals loading program for October

Singapore 380 cSt

Oct18 - 465.25 / 467.25

Nov18 - 459.75 / 461.75

Dec18 - 455.25 / 457.25

Jan19 - 450.75 / 452.75

Feb19 - 446.25 / 448.25

Mar19 - 442.25 / 444.25

Q4-18 - 460.25 / 462.25

Q1-19 - 446.75 / 448.75

Q2-19 - 433.50 / 436.00

Q3-19 - 415.50 / 418.00

CAL19 - 418.00 / 421.00

CAL20 - 343.00 / 349.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Oct18 - 472.50 / 474.50

Nov18 - 467.75 / 469.75

Dec18 - 464.00 / 466.00

Jan19 - 460.75 / 462.75

Feb19 - 456.50 / 458.50

Mar19 - 452.75 / 454.75

Q4-18 - 468.25 / 470.25

Q1-19 - 457.25 / 459.25

Q2-19 - 445.00 / 447.50

Q3-19 - 431.50 / 434.00

CAL19 - 432.50 / 435.50

CAL20 - 366.00 / 372.00

Rotterdam 3.5%

Oct18 - 440.25 / 442.25

Nov18 - 436.00 / 438.00

Dec18 - 431.75 / 433.75

Jan19 - 428.50 / 430.50

Feb19 - 425.50 / 427.50

Mar19 - 422.50 / 424.50

Q4-18 - 436.00 / 438.00

Q1-19 - 425.50 / 427.50

Q2-19 - 414.00 / 416.50

Q3-19 - 391.25 / 393.75

CAL19 - 395.75 / 398.75

CAL20 - 327.75 / 333.75