Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Brent crude futures were at $79.82 per barrel at 0501 GMT, up by $1.02 cents, or 1.3 percent from their last close, and U.S. WTI crude futures rose by 82 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $71.60 a barrel. A cold icy blast can be felt around London this morning, as the summer really has ended as single digit temperatures are to become the new norm in the early mornings. A similar cold feeling will be greeting those end users of the oil market as we broke through the $80 level very early this morning with what looks like an algo trade at 1am. A new round of sanctions planned by the U.S. on Iran and continued trouble in Venezuela support prices nicely, like a warm cloud made from hot air of expectation and speculation. This could definitely be blown away with the news of OPEC agreeing a 500,000 BPD increase in production. With the floatation of Aramco still on the cards, I'm sure they will have $80-90 per barrel in mind to line their pockets enough. With AAPEC starting this week, we could be quieter than usual, so try to enjoy the peace. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Sep 21)

The front crack opened at -10.70, weakening to -10.90, before strengthening to -10.75. The Cal 19 was valued at - 15.20.

Time spreads and cracks of 380 cSt high sulphur fuel oil extended gains on Friday and ended the week higher as a tighter supply outlook provided support..

The 380 cSt fuel crack for October narrowed its discount to Brent crude to about minus $10.90 a barrel on Friday, up from about minus $11.20 a barrel in the previous session, broker sources said.

The front-month crack on Monday was at a discount of $11.43 a barrel. The firmer crack came despite higher crude prices on Friday which rose ahead of a meeting of OPEC and other large crude exporters that will focus on production increases as U.S. sanctions restrict Iranian exports.

Weekly fuel oil stocks in the ARA oil and storage hub fell 11 percent, or 143,000 tonnes, to a total of 1.138 million tonnes in the week ended Sept. 20.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* Rio Oil & Gas conference starts, with speakers including govt officials, executives of BP, Technic, ExxonMobil, among others, 1st day of 4

* Platts holds 34th Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore, with officials from top traders, refiners and state oil cos. to attend; Executives from Aramco, Indian Oil, Mercuria, BP, Shell, Trafigura, Vitol and Gunvor due to speak, among others, 1st day of 3

* Bloomberg proprietary forecast of Cushing crude inventory change; plus weekly analyst survey of crude, gasoline, distillate inventories before Wednesday's EIA weekly inventory report

* Pemex releases monthly oil indicators for August

Singapore 380 cSt

Oct18 - 458.00 / 460.00

Nov18 - 453.25 / 455.25

Dec18 - 449.00 / 451.00

Jan19 - 444.75 / 446.75

Feb19 - 440.75 / 442.75

Mar19 - 436.75 / 438.75

Q4-18 - 453.25 / 455.25

Q1-19 - 440.50 / 442.50

Q2-19 - 428.25 / 430.75

Q3-19 - 410.25 / 412.75

CAL19 - 413.00 / 416.00

CAL20 - 338.00 / 344.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Oct18 - 464.50 / 466.50

Nov18 - 460.75 / 462.75

Dec18 - 457.50 / 459.50

Jan19 - 454.00 / 456.00

Feb19 - 450.75 / 452.75

Mar19 - 447.00 / 449.00

Q4-18 - 460.75 / 462.75

Q1-19 - 450.75 / 452.75

Q2-19 - 439.50 / 442.00

Q3-19 - 426.00 / 428.50

CAL19 - 427.25 / 430.25

CAL20 - 360.75 / 366.75

Rotterdam 3.5%

Oct18 - 434.50 / 436.50

Nov18 - 430.25 / 432.25

Dec18 - 426.25 / 428.25

Jan19 - 423.25 / 425.25

Feb19 - 420.50 / 422.50

Mar19 - 417.50 / 419.50

Q4-18 - 430.25 / 432.25

Q1-19 - 420.75 / 422.75

Q2-19 - 410.00 / 412.50

Q3-19 - 387.50 / 390.00

CAL19 - 391.00 / 394.00

CAL20 - 323.00 / 329.00