Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Brent crude for November delivery was up 5 cents at $78.75 a barrel by 0424 GMT, and U.S. WTI for October delivery fell 8 cents to $70.24 a barrel. The market this morning is a bit like an 80th birthday party - not much activity and most people aren't quite sure what's going on. Trump's intervention yesterday did give the market a downward jolt, but it seems quite happy to continue its slow Stairmaster rise up the price stairs. With the OPEC meeting in Algiers almost upon us, we will have to wait for the drip feed of information to see how much OPEC are willing to increase production, and from which area, to deal with the drop in production from Iran. We might get a classic end-of-week profit-taking post U.S. opening making the most interesting part of today, but for me it seems like it might be an early end to the week. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Sep 20)

The front crack opened at -11.25, strengthening to -10.95across the day. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.45.

Expectations of tighter supplies saw Asia's 380 cSt timespreads, from October/November through to January/February 2019, firm on Thursday amid active trade

Lower fuel oil output as a result of refinery upgrades and turnarounds, couple with firm demand, are expected to weigh on fuel oil arbitrage flows into Asia from October.

Renewed U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil products are also contributing to lower fuel oil supplies.

Meanwhile, shrinking net imports of fuel oil into Singapore, in the week ended Sept. 19, pulled down overall fuel inventories by 4 percent to a two-week low of 15.288 million barrels, or about 2.81 million tonnes, official data showed on Thursday.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 2:45pm: U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI Sept. (prelim)

* 6pm: Baker Hughes rig count

* ~6:30pm: ICE weekly commitments of traders report for Brent, gasoil

* 8:30pm: CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts

Singapore 380 cSt

Oct18 - 451.75 / 453.75

Nov18 - 447.00 / 449.00

Dec18 - 442.75 / 444.75

Jan19 - 438.50 / 440.50

Feb19 - 434.25 / 436.25

Mar19 - 430.25 / 432.25

Q4-18 - 447.00 / 449.00

Q1-19 - 434.25 / 436.25

Q2-19 - 422.00 / 424.50

Q3-19 - 404.00 / 406.50

CAL19 - 404.50 / 407.50

CAL20 - 329.50 / 335.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Oct18 - 458.50 / 460.50

Nov18 - 454.75 / 456.75

Dec18 - 451.50 / 453.50

Jan19 - 448.00 / 450.00

Feb19 - 444.50 / 446.50

Mar19 - 440.75 / 442.75

Q4-18 - 455.00 / 457.00

Q1-19 - 445.00 / 447.00

Q2-19 - 433.75 / 436.25

Q3-19 - 420.25 / 422.75

CAL19 - 419.00 / 422.00

CAL20 - 352.50 / 358.50

Rotterdam 3.5%

Oct18 - 428.75 / 430.75

Nov18 - 424.50 / 426.50

Dec18 - 420.50 / 422.50

Jan19 - 417.50 / 419.50

Feb19 - 414.75 / 416.75

Mar19 - 411.75 / 413.75

Q4-18 - 424.75 / 426.75

Q1-19 - 415.25 / 417.25

Q2-19 - 404.50 / 407.00

Q3-19 - 382.00 / 384.50

CAL19 - 382.75 / 385.75

CAL20 - 314.75 / 320.75