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Commentary

Brent closed up $1.05 last night to $74.45 and WTI closed down $0.05 to $70.33. This market seems about as fragile as Theresa May's prime ministership. Yesterday, crude oil spent more time bouncing up and down than that uncanny Donald Trump balloon making its way around London. Try as they might, and I have to take my hat off to them as they try it every single month, the IEA kept the bulls pacified with a fairly woolly report that addressed all issues apart from the fragile state of world oil production. We have seen a little bit of a recovery on Brent, as supposed concerns about production were focused on - such as Libya, Norway and Canada. Although this morning, the IEA report on a warning about spare capacity is being taken as seriously as Britney Spears post 2007. There will surely be some support found towards the bottom of the $70s as funds and majors provide support to stop this dropping too far. India and China have already expressed their concerns of the high prices and it has had a knock-on effect upon their imports, with China's shrinking for a second consecutive month. With lower prices, OPEC will hope that this reverses the trend and brings back the growing demand they keep banging on about. Good weekend to all.

Fuel Oil Market (Jul 12)

The front crack opened at -8.60, weakening to -8.90, before strengthening to -8.40, closing -8.50.The Cal 19 was valued at -15.30

Asia's fuel oil crack discount to Dubai crude was at its narrowest in more than three weeks on Thursday following steep losses in benchmark crude oil prices in the previous session. The August 180 cSt fuel oil crack to Dubai crude was at a discount of $1.82 a barrel onThursday, up from minus $2.03 a barrel in the session before. This also came as official data in Singapore showed inventories of fuel oil in the city-state drop to a more than 3-1/2-year low after falling for four consecutive weeks. Oil prices rallied on Thursday, recouping some ground following sharp losses in the previous session after Libya said it would resume oil exports.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 6pm: Baker Hughes weekly rig count

* 6:30pm: ICE weekly commitments of traders report for Brent, gasoil

* 8:30pm: CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options

Singapore 380 cSt

Aug18 - 433.25 / 435.25

Sep18 - 426.75 / 428.75

Oct18 - 422.00 / 424.00

Nov18 - 418.75 / 420.75

Dec18 - 415.75 / 417.75

Jan19 - 412.75 / 414.75

Q4-18 - 419.00 / 421.00

Q1-19 - 409.75 / 411.75

Q2-19 - 399.50 / 402.00

Q3-19 - 372.75 / 375.25

CAL19 - 378.75 / 381.75

CAL20 - 300.25 / 306.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Aug18 - 441.00 / 443.00

Sep18 - 435.50 / 437.50

Oct18 - 432.00 / 434.00

Nov18 - 428.75 / 430.75

Dec18 - 425.75 / 427.75

Jan19 - 423.75 / 425.75

Q4-18 - 429.00 / 431.00

Q1-19 - 421.00 / 423.00

Q2-19 - 411.75 / 414.25

Q3-19 - 388.75 / 391.25

CAL19 - 394.00 / 397.00

CAL20 - 323.50 / 329.50

Rotterdam 3.5%

Aug18 - 413.25 / 415.25

Sep18 - 408.25 / 410.25

Oct18 - 404.00 / 406.00

Nov18 - 400.25 / 402.25

Dec18 - 396.50 / 398.50

Jan19 - 394.25 / 396.25

Q4-18 - 400.25 / 402.25

Q1-19 - 391.50 / 393.50

Q2-19 - 380.25 / 382.75

Q3-19 - 352.75 / 355.25

CAL19 - 357.00 / 360.00

CAL20 - 288.50 / 294.50