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Commentary

Brent crude rose $1.23, or 1.7 percent, to $74.63 a barrel by 05:44 GMT after slumping 6.9 percent on Wednesday; and U.S. WTI added 46 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $70.84 a barrel, after falling 5 percent the previous session. The drop was Brent's biggest in two years. EIA data showed a huge 12mn bbl draw on crude, but there were modest draws on gasoline and builds on distillates. Gasoline demand was also down over the 4th July holidays; so couple this with a relentless tirade of his Orangeship in the trade war spat, and that serves up a pretty big reason to sell crude that even Mr Andurand can't justify spinning into a hawkish tweet. I'm reading that another reason for the sell-off is that force majeure in Libya has been lifted. I'm sorry, but Libya is, and has been, in a state of peril for some time now, so any production increases or decreases should not be priced in.

Fuel Oil Market (Jul 11)

The front crack opened at -9.55, weakening to -9.40, before strengthening to -9.30. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.30

The front-month East-West arbitrage spread on Wednesday held at an eight-month high reached in the previous session amid ongoing concerns about supply shortages in the near term, trade sources said.

Total fuel oil flows into East Asia for July are expected to be close to June's eight-month low of 5.5 million tonnes-5.6 million tonnes, as Western arbitrage flows stayed low under 3 million tonnes for a second consecutive month.

Western arbitrage arrivals in August were expected to be similarly low, with 1.9 million tonnes-2.0 million tonnes assessed so far, with no uptick seen in tanker-fixing activity despite stronger Asian benchmarks.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 9:00am: IEA monthly oil market report

* Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data

* Russian refining maintenance schedule

Singapore 380 cSt

Aug18 - 437.00 / 439.00

Sep18 - 430.50 / 432.50

Oct18 - 426.00 / 428.00

Nov18 - 422.75 / 424.75

Dec18 - 419.75 / 421.75

Jan19 - 416.75 / 418.75

Q4-18 - 422.75 / 424.75

Q1-19 - 413.25 / 415.25

Q2-19 - 402.00 / 404.50

Q3-19 - 375.25 / 377.75

CAL19 - 383.50 / 386.50

CAL20 - 305.00 / 311.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Aug18 - 443.75 / 445.75

Sep18 - 439.00 / 441.00

Oct18 - 435.75 / 437.75

Nov18 - 432.50 / 434.50

Dec18 - 429.50 / 431.50

Jan19 - 427.50 / 429.50

Q4-18 - 432.75 / 434.75

Q1-19 - 424.50 / 426.50

Q2-19 - 414.25 / 416.75

Q3-19 - 391.25 / 393.75

CAL19 - 398.75 / 401.75

CAL20 - 328.25 / 334.25

Rotterdam 3.5%

Aug18 - 416.75 / 418.75

Sep18 - 411.75 / 413.75

Oct18 - 407.50 / 409.50

Nov18 - 403.50 / 405.50

Dec18 - 399.75 / 401.75

Jan19 - 397.50 / 399.50

Q4-18 - 403.50 / 405.50

Q1-19 - 394.50 / 396.50

Q2-19 - 382.25 / 384.75

Q3-19 - 352.25 / 354.75

CAL19 - 361.75 / 364.75

CAL20 - 289.25 / 295.25