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Commentary

Brent closed Friday at $79.23, and WTI closed at $74.15. So, Trump had one of his Trump Twitter Tirade's at the weekend and this particular TTT was about the oil price. Again, it concerns me greatly that the only other outspoken voice about oil prices being too high is the right honorable Donald Trump. He has asked Saudi Arabi to increase production by 2mn bls as higher prices are, ultimately, going to affect demand and thus affect the economy. It seems, however, that Saudi Arabia was ahead of the curve as, apparently, Saudi pumped an additional 700kb of crude in June. How convenient that this figure has been published post the OPEC meeting. The elephant in the room, however, is why the rest of the major oil-producing countries aren't asking the US to produce more? Why is that? Is it like an unspeakable truth? Is it like saying Voldemort in the middle of Hogwarts? The US has proved over the last 2 years that it is more than capable of increasing production by a substantial amount in order to fill any drop in production from elsewhere. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (June 29)

The front crack opened at -9.40, strengthening to -9.35, before weakening to -9.60, closing -9.40.The Cal 19 was valued at -15.35

Asia's 180 cSt fuel oil crack for June ended at an average of a $5.50 discount to Singapore benchmark prices, making this the highest monthly average since November 2017 buoyed by tight supply. A massive build-up of stocks seen in Europe but that has not bolstered imports into Asia this month.

Fuel oil stocks held independently at the ARA refining and storage rose by about 5 percent from the previous week to a historical high of 1.6 million tonnes in the week to June 28. Western inflows of fuel oil to East Asia for both June and July were assessed at 2.8-2.9 million tonnes and 2.1-2.2 million tonnes, respectively, below 2017's monthly average of 3.8- 3.9 million.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 2:45pm: U.S. Markit Manufacturing, June (final)

* 3pm: U.S. Construction Spending, May

* 3pm: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, June

* Bloomberg OPEC survey on production

* Bloomberg monthly tanker tracking compilations, including for producers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, published throughout the day

* Bloomberg proprietary forecast of Cushing crude inventory change plus weekly analyst survey of crude, gasoline, distillate inventories before EIA weekly inventory report

* Brent crude oil loading program for August; aggregation of North Sea benchmark grades

Singapore 380 cSt

Aug18 - 452.75 / 454.75

Sep18 - 446.50 / 448.50

Oct18 - 442.00 / 444.00

Nov18 - 438.25 / 440.25

Dec18 - 435.00 / 437.00

Jan19 - 431.50 / 433.50

Q4-18 - 438.25 / 440.25

Q1-19 - 427.75 / 429.75

Q2-19 - 415.00 / 417.50

Q3-19 - 386.50 / 389.00

CAL19 - 388.00 / 391.00

CAL20 - 304.75 / 310.75

Singapore 180 cSt

Aug18 - 461.75 / 463.75

Sep18 - 456.25 / 458.25

Oct18 - 452.25 / 454.25

Nov18 - 448.75 / 450.75

Dec18 - 445.75 / 447.75

Jan19 - 443.00 / 445.00

Q4-18 - 448.75 / 450.75

Q1-19 - 439.50 / 441.50

Q2-19 - 428.00 / 430.50

Q3-19 - 403.50 / 406.00

CAL19 - 403.50 / 406.50

CAL20 - 328.00 / 334.00

Rotterdam 3.5%

Aug18 - 434.00 / 436.00

Sep18 - 429.25 / 431.25

Oct18 - 424.50 / 426.50

Nov18 - 420.25 / 422.25

Dec18 - 416.50 / 418.50

Jan19 - 414.00 / 416.00

Q4-18 - 420.50 / 422.50

Q1-19 - 410.50 / 412.50

Q2-19 - 396.25 / 398.75

Q3-19 - 366.25 / 368.75

CAL19 - 367.50 / 370.50

CAL20 - 290.50 / 296.50