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Commentary

Brent closed last night up $0.23 to $77.85 and WTI closed at $73.45, up $0.69. What has this week brought us? Well, an OPEC agreement, a spike in oil prices, second Iran sanctions, and further cases of falling production. Brent has performed relatively well this week in a week that has been somewhat turbulent for other markets. It is surely only a matter of time before oil starts to feel the pinch from looming trade tariffs and a general poor macroeconomic outlook. Let's not even start to consider the effects of Brexit, EU migrant disagreement, break up of NATO, on markets. OPEC have taken a bit of a risk by setting a precedent of relaxing their strict adherence to capping supply. They may dress their production hike up with talk of 'actual realised production' that is lower, but at the end of the day, it's an increase. They have been fortunate so far with the Iranian sanctions and the dire situation in Venezuela, I'm sure they are hoping things will continue while they continue to divest from oil revenues, while keeping prices high enough to survive.

Fuel Oil Market (June 28)

The front crack opened at -9.40, before strengthening to - 9.25, before weakening to -9.45, closing -9.35

The Cal 19 was valued at -15.35. Asia's 180-cst crack value rose for the fourth straight session and was near a 32-wee high supported by reduced supplies.

The discount on Asia's 180 cSt fuel oil crack to Brent on Thursday at a discount smaller than $4.50 reflected the strongest crack value since Nov. 17, 2017.

Singapore's fuel oil stocks had eased 2.6 percent or 506,000 barrels to a five-week low of 18.68 million barrels in the week to June 27, official data showed. The data also showed fuel oil inventories in Singapore were 16 percent lower than a year ago.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 1:30 p.m.: U.S. Personal Income, May

* 2:45 p.m.: Chicago Purchasing Manager, June

* 3 p.m.: University of Michigan Sentiment, June

* ~ 6:30 p.m.: ICE weekly commitments of traders report for Brent, gasoil

* 8:30 p.m.: CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts

* Today, no exact timing:

** Baker Hughes rig count

** Primorsk diesel loading program for July

** EIA’ s Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production

Singapore 380 cSt

Jul18 - 456.50 / 458.50

Aug18 - 449.50 / 451.50

Sep18 - 443.25 / 445.25

Oct18 - 438.75 / 440.75

Nov18 - 435.25 / 437.25

Dec18 - 432.25 / 434.25

Q3-18 - 449.75 / 451.75

Q4-18 - 436.00 / 438.00

Q1-19 - 425.50 / 428.00

Q2-19 - 413.50 / 416.00

CAL19 - 389.75 / 392.75

CAL20 - 311.25 / 317.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Jul18 - 464.25 / 466.25

Aug18 - 458.50 / 460.50

Sep18 - 453.00 / 455.00

Oct18 - 449.25 / 451.25

Nov18 - 445.75 / 447.75

Dec18 - 442.75 / 444.75

Q3-18 - 458.50 / 460.50

Q4-18 - 446.50 / 448.50

Q1-19 - 436.75 / 439.25

Q2-19 - 426.25 / 428.75

CAL19 - 404.75 / 407.75

CAL20 - 336.25 / 342.25

Rotterdam 3.5%

Jul18 - 434.75 / 436.75

Aug18 - 431.25 / 433.25

Sep18 - 426.75 / 428.75

Oct18 - 422.25 / 424.25

Nov18 - 418.00 / 420.00

Dec18 - 414.00 / 416.00

Q3-18 - 430.75 / 432.75

Q4-18 - 418.00 / 420.00

Q1-19 - 407.75 / 410.25

Q2-19 - 395.00 / 397.50

CAL19 - 367.25 / 370.25

CAL20 - 295.75 / 301.75