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Commentary

Brent was down 12 cents, or 0.16 percent, at $76.67 a barrel by 01:59 GMT; but WTI crude futures gained 6 cents, or 0.09 percent, to $65.87 a barrel. Last week, the market lost around 3 percent, adding to a near 5-percent decline from a week before. In the oil market, the stage looks set for Saudi Arabia and Russia to increase production for two reasons. One: so that can make sure they keep up market share against the increasingly dominant U.S. shale production. Two: To make sure that too high prices don't hurt demand. Russia's Rosneft has already preempted the decision by stating that they will be able to restore 70,000 bpd of output in just two days if the two oil giants agree to turn on the taps some more. With money managers reducing their bullish positions somewhat, the market's expecting - or at least preparing for - some such announcement. It's a luxury of a choice really; the choice between pumping and selling more or higher prices. Do you want cream and then jam, or jam and then cream on your scone? In theory, they are the same outcomes, but as any British person will tell you, it's very different and can make or break friendships. Good day.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 1:30pm: Bloomberg forecast of U.S. waterborne LPG exports

* 3pm: U.S. Factory Orders for April, est. -0.5% (prior 1.6%);U.S. Durable Goods Orders for April F (prior -1.7%)

* Bloomberg proprietary forecast of Cushing crude inventory change plus weekly analyst survey of crude, gasoline, distillates inventories before Wednesday's EIA report

* IAEA board of governors meet in Vienna, with Iran monitoring on the agenda, through Friday

* EIA Energy Conference in Washington, 1st day of 2, with EIA, DOE officials, among others

Singapore 380 cSt

Jul18 - 432.75 / 434.75

Aug18 - 428.75 / 430.75

Sep18 - 424.75 / 426.75

Oct18 - 421.25 / 423.25

Nov18 - 418.00 / 420.00

Dec18 - 414.50 / 416.50

Q3-18 - 428.75 / 430.75

Q4-18 - 418.25 / 420.25

Q1-19 - 406.50 / 409.00

Q2-19 - 394.00 / 396.50

CAL19 - 372.00 / 375.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Jul18 - 444.25 / 446.25

Aug18 - 440.00 / 442.00

Sep18 - 436.25 / 438.25

Oct18 - 432.75 / 434.75

Nov18 - 429.00 / 431.00

Dec18 - 425.75 / 427.75

Q3-18 - 440.25 / 442.25

Q4-18 - 429.25 / 431.25

Q1-19 - 417.75 / 420.25

Q2-19 - 405.75 / 408.25

CAL19 - 386.50 / 389.50

CAL20 - 313.50 / 318.50

Rotterdam 3.5%

Jul18 - 416.75 / 418.75

Aug18 - 413.25 / 415.25

Sep18 - 409.25 / 411.25

Oct18 - 404.75 / 406.75

Nov18 - 400.25 / 402.25

Dec18 - 395.75 / 397.75

Q3-18 - 413.00 / 415.00

Q4-18 - 400.25 / 402.25

Q1-19 - 388.50 / 391.00

Q2-19 - 374.50 / 377.00

CAL19 - 351.00 / 354.00

CAL20 - 280.00 / 285.00