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Commentary

Brent closed last night up $2.36 to $77.21 and WTI closed at $71.14, up $2.08. Well, it was a delayed reaction, but crude certainly came to the party yesterday. Interestingly, crude and the US dollar are tracking each other at the moment, something that has only happened 11 times in the last 35 years. Interesting indeed. The politics of Trump's decision plays exactly into his campaign mantra of 'Make America Great again'. US crude production last night hit 10.7mn bpd and they are edging ever closer to overtaking Russia and becoming the world's number 1 crude oil producer - something I said back in November would happen within 5 years. With this increasing dominance of the U.S. oil producers since their phoenix-like revival after the 2014 production war and very healthy U.S. economy, we are seeing (like many a Republican administration) the POTUS enjoying the benefits of policies put in place by the previous government. I'm sure many people would have thought that Saudi Arabia will fill the gap left by Iran, but the U.S. certainly now have a big opportunity to front-run OPEC. Geopolitically, Israel and Iran have put on the boxing gloves, and are currently trading blows in the first round. And there was all of us thinking things would calm down now that North Korea looks much more like a benign dictatorship. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (May 9)

The front crack opened at -12.70, strengthening to -12.35, before weakening to -12.70, closing -12.40. The Cal 19 was valued at -17.00.

Bullish sentiment lifted the front-month fuel oil crack on Wednesday despite sharp gains in crude oil prices after U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal. The June 380 cSt fuel oil crack to Brent crude was trading at a discount of about $12.50 a barrel on Wednesday, down from minus $12.70 in the previous session. This came despite oil prices rising more than 3 percent on Wednesday, hitting 3-1/2-year highs, after U.S. President Trump abandoned a nuclear deal with Iran and announced the "highest level" of sanctions against the OPEC member

Fujairah fuel oil inventories snapped four straight weeks of inventory builds after dropping 6 percent, or 542,000 barrels (about 81,000 tonnes) to a three-week low of 9.019 million barrels (1.346 million tonnes) in the week to May 7, data via S&P Global Platts showed .

Economic Data and Events: (Times are London.)

* 9am: Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data

* 1:30pm: U.S. CPI for m/m April, est. 0.3% (prior -0.1%)

* 1:30pm: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for May 5, est. 219k (prior 211k)

* 1:30pm: U.S. Continuing Claims for April 28, est. 1800k (prior 1756k)

* 1:45pm: U.S. Bloomberg May U.S. Economic Survey

* 2:45pm: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort for May 6 (prior 56.5)

* Today: Russian refining maintenance schedule from ministry

Singapore 380 cSt

Jun18 - 424.50 / 426.50

Jul18 - 421.75 / 423.75

Aug18 - 419.00 / 421.00

Sep18 - 416.00 / 418.00

Oct18 - 412.50 / 414.50

Nov18 - 409.25 / 411.25

Q3-18 - 418.75 / 420.75

Q4-18 - 409.00 / 411.00

Q1-19 - 397.50 / 400.00

Q2-19 - 387.00 / 389.50

CAL19 - 363.00 / 366.00

CAL20 - 297.50 / 302.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Jun18 - 433.75 / 435.75

Jul18 - 431.50 / 433.50

Aug18 - 429.00 / 431.00

Sep18 - 426.25 / 428.25

Oct18 - 423.00 / 425.00

Nov18 - 419.75 / 421.75

Q3-18 - 428.75 / 430.75

Q4-18 - 419.50 / 421.50

Q1-19 - 408.50 / 411.00

Q2-19 - 398.25 / 400.75

CAL19 - 377.50 / 380.50

CAL20 - 321.50 / 326.50

Rotterdam Barges

Jun18 - 411.25 / 413.25

Jul18 - 408.25 / 410.25

Aug18 - 404.50 / 406.50

Sep18 - 400.50 / 402.50

Oct18 - 396.25 / 398.25

Nov18 - 392.00 / 394.00

Q3-18 - 404.25 / 406.25

Q4-18 - 391.75 / 393.75

Q1-19 - 381.25 / 383.75

Q2-19 - 367.25 / 369.75

CAL19 - 341.50 / 344.50

CAL20 - 272.50 / 277.50