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Commentary

Brent crude futures were at $65.05 per barrel at 0604 GMT, up $69 cents, or 1.1 percent, extending Wednesday's 2.6-percent climb. WTI crude futures were up $84 cents, or 1.4 percent, from their last settlement at $61.44 a barrel, adding to a 2.4-percent gain from the day before. A couple of observations were highlighted to me yesterday: US Domestic production for the week ending 9 Feb 10,271 mbd - up 1.3 mbd from a year ago, and OPEC + Russian production cuts being held through end-2018 - 1.8 mbd. Looking at these two figures you can see why many people are thinking that this is going to fall below $60. But as previously mentioned, do not underestimate OPEC's ability to pull this market up at any point they choose. They have ruined the party like that one friend on a night out who drinks too much and suddenly needs taking home. Just when you thought everything was finally taking a turn for the better, you had got past the usual point in the night they do it, then bam... he's giving the bouncer a Glaswegian kiss. OPEC have used the same card they have since 2016: the promise of further cuts. They say you can't teach a dog new tricks, well to be honest, they don't need to learn any new ones at the moment.

Fuel Oil Market (February 14)

The front crack opened at -9.00, weakening to -9.65 across the day. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.50.

Asia's front-month high-sulphur fuel oil crack extended gains, further narrowing its discount to Brent crude amid weaker crude oil price.

Meanwhile, cash premiums for cargoes of 380-cst fuel oil firmed slightly despite the absence of buying interest for cargoes of the fuel in the Singapore trading window.

Trade activity has been muted in the Singapore window in February with just 160,000 tonnes of fuel oil changing hands since the start of the month. By comparison, 540,000 tonnes of fuel oil cargoes were traded in the first half of January and 360,000 tonnes in the first half of February last year

Singapore weekly onshore fuel oil inventories dropped 4 percent from their highest so far this year to 22.828 million barrels (about 3.41 million tonnes) in the week ended Feb. 13. Inventories dropped despite a 15% increase in weekly net fuel oil imports.

Economic Data and Events

* ~12pm: Russian refining maintenance schedule from ministry

* 1:30pm: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for Feb. 10, est. 228k (prior 221k)

* 1:30pm: U.S. Empire Manufacturing for Feb., est. 18 (prior 17.7)

* 2:15pm U.S. Industrial Production m/m for Jan., est. 0.2% (prior 0.9%)

* Russian Urals crude 5-day program for March

* China markets closed for Chinese New Year holiday, through Feb. 21

Singapore 380 cSt

Mar18 - 358.50 / 360.50

Apr18 - 358.25 / 360.25

May18 - 357.75 / 359.75

Jun18 - 357.00 / 359.00

Jul18 - 355.75 / 357.75

Aug18 - 354.75 / 356.75

Q2-18 - 357.75 / 359.75

Q3-18 - 354.75 / 356.75

Q4-18 - 349.75 / 352.25

Q1-19 -341.50 / 344.00

CAL19 - 309.75 / 312.75

CAL20 - 237.00 / 242.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Mar18 - 365.25 / 367.25

Apr18 - 364.75 / 366.75

May18 - 364.25 / 366.25

Jun18 - 363.75 / 365.75

Jul18 - 362.50 / 364.50

Aug18 - 361.50 / 363.50

Q2-18 - 364.25 / 366.25

Q3-18 - 361.50 / 363.50

Q4-18 - 356.75 / 359.25

Q1-19 - 349.25 / 351.75

CAL19 - 319.00 / 322.00

CAL20 - 252.75 / 257.75

Rotterdam Barges

Mar18 345.50 / 347.50

Apr18 345.50 / 347.50

May18 344.75 / 346.75

Jun18 343.75 / 345.75

Jul18 342.25 / 344.25

Aug18 340.50 / 342.50

Q2-18 335.00 / 337.00

Q3-18 340.25 / 342.25

Q4-18 331.50 / 334.00

Q1-19 323.00 / 325.50

CAL19 286.00 / 289.00

CAL20 223.00 / 228.00