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By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services Ltd.

Brent closed Friday at $55.45 down 0.56 and WTI closed down 0.64 at $52.37. I don't want to start the week off banging my relentless bear drum, but I'm sorry, I'm going to get on with it. OPEC have said that "100pct full compliance is not necessary, 50pct is OK, 80pct is excellent". So let me get this right, OPEC and non-OPEC come to this extraordinary agreement and the market rallies and everyone is dancing round holding hands, and in actual fact what we have to do is look at the agreement and say: "Ahhh that's good, they'll only do half of what they say, but fair play to them." Ummm, no. The US rig count decreased last week, but apparently US oil production is increasing by 250kbpd this year. OPEC have stated US oil production will decrease by 280kbpd over 2017, so that's a 0.5mn bbl swing for all you bulls to mull over, and then aren't we back to the same place we were last year? I suppose we are, but this is all being politely ignored like a beggar and his dog outside Harrods. Watch the dollar and apparently some blond guy who owns casinos is going to become President of the US this week.

Economic data/events (London times)

* ~12pm: ICE weekly commitments of traders report for Brent, gasoil

* Today:

* World Future Energy Summit, Abu Dhabi, with participation of UAE govt officials, Saudi Aramco officials, others; 1st day of 4

* Angola loading program (March), Russia Urals 5-day loading program (Feb.)

* Monday is a U.S. holiday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day

* CME trading, due to open as usual Sunday, to halt at 6pm

London time Monday before reopening again at 11pm

Singapore 380 cSt

Feb17 - 327.00 / 329.00

Mar17 - 324.25 / 326.25

Apr17 - 322.00 / 324.00

May17 - 320.25 / 322.25

Jun17 - 318.50 / 320.50

Jul17 - 316.75 / 318.75

Q2-17 - 320.25 / 322.25

Q3-17 - 314.75 / 316.75

Q4-17 - 309.75 / 312.25

Q1-18 - 307.00 / 309.50

CAL18 - 301.75 / 305.25

CAL19 - 282.25 / 287.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Feb17 - 333.00 / 335.00

Mar17 - 330.00 / 332.00

Apr17 - 329.00 / 331.00

May17 - 327.25 / 329.25

Jun17 - 325.50 / 327.50

Jul17 - 323.75 / 325.75

Q2-17 - 327.25 / 329.25

Q3-17 - 322.00 / 324.00

Q4-17 - 317.00 / 319.50

Q1-18 - 314.00 / 316.50

CAL18 - 309.25 / 312.75

CAL19 - 291.00 / 296.00

Rotterdam 3.5%

Feb17 305.25 / 307.25

Mar17 305.00 / 307.00

Apr17 304.50 / 306.50

May17 303.75 / 305.75

Jun17 303.00 / 305.00

Jul17 302.00 / 304.00

Q2-17 303.75 / 305.75

Q3-17 299.50 / 301.50

Q4-17 293.75 / 296.25

Q1-18 292.50 / 295.00

CAL18 287.50 / 291.00

CAL19 267.50 / 272.50

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