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By Michael Poulson, A/S Global Risk Management

Oil prices are close to one-month low as markets are trying to determine the impact of increased U.S. production versus OPEC deal compliance.

In its monthly report, published yesterday, the Energy Information Administration foresees an increase in U.S. crude oil production to 9 mio. barrels per day, up from 8.89 mio. barrels last year. For 2018, estimated production will be 9.3 mio. bpd.

Iraqi oil minister confirms the country's compliance with the agreed oil production cut, despite alleged increase in oil exports which we mentioned in our Market Briefing yesterday. The reduction in production is 160,000, slightly short of the agreed 210,000 barrels per day production cut (from October levels).

The American Petroleum Institute (API) published its weekly oil stocks report last night and it pointed to a 1.5 mio. barrel-build; far from previous reading of 7.4 mio. draw in crude oil stocks. The last 6 weeks have shown seesaw data with one week of builds, one week of draws. Both gasoline and distillates stocks climbed as well. Now this afternoon's EIA oil inventory report will be followed closely and could cause additional market volatility.

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A/S Global Risk Management is a provider of customised hedging solutions for the management of price risk on fuel expenses. The company has offices in Denmark and Singapore. For further details about its risk management products and services, please call +45 88 38 00 00 or email hedging@global-riskmanagement.com.