Thu 15 Sep 2016, 08:53 GMT

Mixed messages feed market uncertainty


Crude oil loses as API, Platts, and IEA data disagrees.



Contrary to the American Petroleum Institute (API) and S&P Global Platts' predictions earlier this week, both forecasting a rise in American crude stockpiles to the tune of over a million barrels, with the API actually suggesting a 3.3 million barrel gain, the International Energy Agency's (IEA's) weekly official report revealed a drop in American crude oil inventories by 600,000 barrels for the week ending September 9th. There was a massive 14.5 million barrel drop in American stockpiles for the previous week, mainly due to foul weather preventing ships unloading their oil cargoes, and although it was expected that inventories would catch back up as ships became able to unload, that 'catch up' apparently hasn’t happened just yet.

Despite the apparent good news relating to crude oil stockpiles, data in the report relating to gasoline and distillates served to reverse optimism, the day still resulting in relatively high crude oil price drops. Where estimates had been for a 1.5 million barrel drop in distillate stockpiles, the IEA report showed that by week's end inventories had actually risen by 4.5 million barrels. Gasoline storage, expected to rise by only 343,000 barrels actually rose 567,000 barrels.

Matthew Smith, analyst at New York's Clipperdata, commenting on the IEA weekly report's mixed data, said that, "a build to gasoline stocks amid lower runs and lower product supplied counters the bullish theme, as does a strong build to distillates."

By the end of Wednesday's session, November Brent crude futures lost another $1.25, or 2.7%, settling at $45.85 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Exchange, while October U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dipped another $1.32, or 2.9%, dropping to $43.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The day's main influences, the bears and bulls:

The Bears:

- The IEA weekly report showed stockpile gains in both distillates and gasoline, contrary to API and Platts data

The Bulls:

- Data on the IEA report showed a 600,000 barrel drawdown in crude oil stockpiles as opposed to the 3.3 million barrel increase seen in the API report


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