Wed 14 Sep 2016, 07:42 GMT

Monthly IEA report instills bearish outlook


Oil sinks on a less-than-optimistic report by the IEA, which does not expect the market to reach equilibrium until at least mid-2017.



The International Energy Agency (IEA), representing a group of 29 member countries and serving to advise nations on their energy policies, released September's Oil Market Report (OMR) on Tuesday. The gist of the report was a very bearish sentiment relating to the state of the world's crude oil industry. Apparently the demand for crude has been slowing more quickly than previously forecast, on top of which output is reaching record levels from OPEC member countries. The result, unsurprisingly, is a forecast for continued glut with the oil market now not expected to reach equilibrium until at least mid-2017, as opposed to later this year, as was suggested in the IEA's report for last month.

The sentiment of the OMR report only served to add to the bearish momentum of a statement on Monday by the 14-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), claiming that an increasing non-OPEC member output is exacerbating the global glut situation, with Russia, the United States, and Norway producing almost 200,000 barrels a day more than expected in 2016. Basically, it seems like everyone is outputting too much oil and, cumulatively, we are not using enough of it to keep up. With the upcoming meeting in Algiers fast approaching, it will be very interesting to see what comes of it and how sentiment responds to the mounting pressure of its approach. An output freeze seems like a good idea for attacking the global glut, but of course slowing down output is a frightening idea for nations concerned with market share and with keeping the costs associated with participating in the oil production industry within highly profitable margins.

By the end of Monday's session, November Brent crude futures lost $1.22, or 2.5%, to settle at $47.10 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Exchange, while October U.S. West Texas Intermediate shed $1.39, or 3%, dropping to $44.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The day's main influences, the bears and bulls:

The Bears:

- Continued influence of comments by OPEC representatives suggesting that non-OPEC members are outputting too much oil.

- September's Oil Market Report, which says oil demand is slowing faster than expected while OPEC output increases.


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