Wed 7 Sep 2016, 07:17 GMT

Brent dips as NYMEX WTI plays catch-up


PMI data, shipping rates and Algeria talks the key market influencers.



As a result of the Labor day holiday in the United States on Monday, NYMEX WTI was effectively playing catch-up with ICE WTI on Tuesday; hence while ICE WTI showed a decrease of $0.36, in line with ICE Brent's decline of $0.37 compared to the previous day, NYMEX WTI ended the day $0.39 higher than on Friday.

S&P Global Platts released data on Monday indicating that costs were at their lowest ever observed by Platts for shipping rates between Rotterdam and Singapore for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs). Platts has been monitoring shipping rates between Rotterdam and Singapore since 2010, and never before had they seen prices as low as $2.25 million until last Friday. This figure represents a 65% drop from rates as high as $6.4 million observed in January of this year. With 24 new VLCCs added to the equation so far in 2016, shipping rates are being pulled down because there are now just too many ships vying for available business and with 13 vessels still to come this year and 39 more due to arrive in 2017, commissioned back when the price of oil was still booming back in 2007, associated companies must be left wondering if investing in those new ships was such a wise idea as they nervously watch Hanjin's financial situation unfold and as they contemplate the sharp downturn in shipping rates. The drop in shipping rates, however may actually assist the price of crude oil as it becomes cheaper to move product around between international buyers and sellers.

Turning to International Energy Forum news, despite scepticism that an output freeze will be the result of upcoming oil industry talks in Algeria late this September, and despite a general consensus that even if an agreement were to be reached, it would prove to be ineffective, crude oil investors are all still fixed on September 26-28th in anticipation of the 15th International Energy Forum. The Forum will comprise representation from 73 countries which account for around 90 percent of global supply and demand for oil and natural gas. Statements by top producers from both Russia and Saudi Arabia on Monday saying that they plan to work together to stabilise the oil industry and are both in favour of an output freeze agreement caused a momentary surge in crude oil on Monday and were still being discussed throughout Tuesday's trading session.

The Institute of Supply Management's (ISM's) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the month of August came out on Tuesday, reporting its lowest level since early 2010 at 51.4. An indicator for national economic conditions, a PMI of over 50 is seen as a sign of growth while numbers below 50 are seen as signs of decline. August's index comes in sharp contrast to Reuters forecasts setting expectations at 55.0, which would have been much nearer to July's index of 55.0. August's read is the 6th decline reported in the last 8 sessions. However, the modest PMI reported for August seems in line with Friday's similarly modest Non-Farm Payrolls report which posted lower than expected job creation statistics for the month of August. The lower- than-expected PMI may further deflate any argument for a federal interest rate increase in the U.S., good news for oil investors who deal in non-American currencies.

By the end of the trading day on Tuesday, November Brent crude futures had dropped 37 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $47.26 USD a barrel on London's ICE Futures Exchange, and October U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 39 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $44.83 USD a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The day's main influences, the bears and bulls:

The Bears:

- A general interest in the upcoming oil industry meeting in Algeria is still of note as an influence in crude oil trade.

The Bulls:

- Lowest ever reported shipping rates for VLCCs by Platts indicates more affordable marine transport of crude oil shipments.

- A lower-than-expected Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index from the Institute of Supply Management should help keep the greenback and federal interest rates at bay.


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