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Oil prices pushed higher in European trade, after rallying sharply overnight as market players continued to monitor supply disruptions in Nigeria.

On Monday morning, decisive cues were lacking. The Baker Hughes rig count released Friday evening showed a recovery in US drilling activity but the tropical storm Colin which had moved to the Gulf of Mexico and new output losses in Nigeria prevented a downward move at oil markets. WTI kept trading within reach of the psychological 50 USD marker, with Friday's slump in the dollar favouring tests of the upside. A weaker greenback makes oil futures, which are priced in dollars, less expensive for investors outside the USA. That is why WTI eventually succeeded in sustainably breaking above the 7-period moving average. This triggered more technical buying which pushed WTI up to 50 USD. Near this level gains were limited, though, as higher prices can hardly be justified against the backdrop of a recovery in Canada's oil production and in US drilling activity. Upward momentum thus wasn't sufficient to keep prices on a higher level on Monday which is why some investors took profits after the ICE Gasoil settlement.

ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 445.00 USD on Monday, this was 2.00 USD above Friday's settlement. With some 40,500 deals, the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The Stochastic indicator gave off buying signals at the WTI and the Brent chart as its lines had crossed. However, the indicator can be interpreted as rather bearish at the Gasoil chart, after having dropped below 50%. The buying signals at the crude oil charts shouldn't be overestimated as they were generated near the 50% threshold. Near this marker, technical signals only have limited impact on oil prices. Brent and WTI surpassed the 7-period moving average, pushing prices higher Monday afternoon. The year-to-date highs and the upper Bollinger Bands are limiting the upward potential but have remained out of reach so far. That is why we are still assessing the technical constellation as bearish.

U.S.

Nymex on Average: Oil futures traded on the ICE platform in London struggled to find a direction in East Asia and in NYMEX electronic trading this morning, as fresh cues were lacking. The traded volume at NYMEX is about on average this morning. Market participants are waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open and for the release of today's economic indicators. Moreover, they are looking ahead to the release of the EIA's monthly energy report this evening and of the API's data on US oil inventories due at 10.30 p.m.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 7-6)
380cst $227
180cst $325
MGO $480

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 7-6)
380cst $232
180cst $274
MGO $453

Singapore (delivered indications 7-6)

380cst $236
180cst $242
MGO $439

Fujairah (delivered indications 7-6)

380cst $244
180cst $249
MGO $503

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $233
MGO 0.1%S: $442