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Oil prices rose this morning as turmoil in Nigeria, shale bankruptcies in the United States and a crisis in Venezuela all contributed to tightening supplies.

The technical constellation prompted investors to lock in some profits Thursday morning, the more so as oil futures had reached fresh year-to-date highs on Wednesday. Wednesday evening's release of the FOMC meeting minutes bolstered the dollar as the minutes spurred speculations on an imminent rate hike in the USA. This still weighed on oil futures Thursday morning, as did the weather forecast for the region around Fort McMurray in Canada. The forecast weather conditions might help reign in the wildfires which are ravaging in this region, so oil production might sooner or later be resumed. Market fundamentals thus were no longer bullish and the technical selling signals of the Stochastic indicator and the RSI triggered some profit taking. Moreover, the WTI contract dropped below the 7-period moving average. As we had already forecast in our technical analysis Thursday morning, the contract eventually dropped to its first price target at 46.70 USD. Even so, profit taking did not push oil futures down for long. Libya's rivalling governments came to terms over resuming oil exports from the port of Hariga but oil prices regained ground after the Gasoil settlement. In the evening oil futures made up for earlier losses, ending the day with new highs.

ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 429.50 USD on Thursday, this was 14.25 USD below Wednesday's settlement. With some 73,400 deals, the traded volume (front month) was above average.

The selling signals of the Stochastic indicator and the RSI have meanwhile lost their bearish impact. The indicators are neutral this morning. WTI has re-entered its short-term uptrend above the 7-period moving average after having failed to break this marker sustainably on Thursday. However, oil futures haven't reached their year-to-date highs yet. These highs can be regarded as strong resistances. On Thursday we forecast that WTI might drop to 46.70 USD. This forecast proved right but as the US-crude oil contract has bounced off this marker, we are currently assessing the technical constellation as neutral, with prices hovering between the 7-period moving averages and their 2016-highs.

U.S.

Nymex above average: Oil futures kept track of Thursday evening's gains during the Asian session and in Globex electronic trading this morning. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average this morning, with investors already focusing on the July WTI contract. Market participants are waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as for news on the situation in Canada and Nigeria. They are also looking ahead to the release of some economic indicators due today. The WTI contract with delivery in June will expire this evening.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 20-5)
380cst $214
180cst $314
MGO $448

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 20-5)
380cst $228
180cst $276
MGO $435

Singapore (delivered indications 20-5)

380cst $229
180cst $235
MGO $432

Fujairah (delivered indications 20-5)

380cst $236
180cst $240
MGO $484

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $223
MGO 0.1%S: $423