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Crude prices fell this morning as oil sands production in Canada restarted after forced closures due to wildfires, and as already record-high inventories especially in the United States grew.

The technical constellation was slightly bearish Tuesday morning but its impact was refrained as the indicators showed that the market was oversold. In the course of the morning, oil futures gained ground on reports saying that the output losses in Canada were higher than expected. After having consolidated around noon, oil futures extended their gains in late-afternoon trade, breaking above the resistances at 44.50 USD Brent and 44.10 USD WTI. Nigeria's oil production is likely to be restrained longer than expected. Later in the evening (after our office hours), the EIA released its monthly energy report. The report came in surprisingly bullish pushing oil futures even higher. The bullish impact of the EIA's report even outweighed the API's bearish data on US oil inventories released later in the evening. Eventually, oil futures ended the day clearly in the black.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 393.25 USD on Tuesday, this was 12.50 USD above Monday's settlement. With some 39,700 deals, the traded volume (front month) was below average.

Neither the Stochastic indicator, nor the RSI are giving off any fresh signals this morning. Both indicators are neutral at the moment. Oil futures are trading above the supports near the 7- and the 21-period moving average. If oil futures drop below these supports, selling signals might be generated. A bearish signal would also be triggered if the 7-period moving average and the 21-period moving average cross. Up to now, these signals have not come to be yet. That is why the technical constellation can be assessed as neutral this morning.

U.S.

Wednesday 11th May Crude prices fell this morning as oil sands production in Canada restarted after forced closures due to wildfires, and as already record-high inventories especially in the United States grew. The technical constellation was slightly bearish Tuesday morning but its impact was refrained as the indicators showed that the market was oversold. In the course of the morning, oil futures gained ground on reports saying that the output losses in Canada were higher than expected. After having consolidated around noon, oil futures extended their gains in late-afternoon trade, breaking above the resistances at 44.50 USD Brent and 44.10 USD WTI. Nigeria's oil production is likely to be restrained longer than expected. Later in the evening (after our office hours), the EIA released its monthly energy report. The report came in surprisingly bullish pushing oil futures even higher. The bullish impact of the EIA's report even outweighed the API's bearish data on US oil inventories released later in the evening. Eventually, oil futures ended the day clearly in the black. ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 393.25 USD on Tuesday, this was 12.50 USD above Monday's settlement. With some 39,700 deals, the traded volume (front month) was below average. Neither the Stochastic indicator, nor the RSI are giving off any fresh signals this morning. Both indicators are neutral at the moment. Oil futures are trading above the supports near the 7- and the 21-period moving average. If oil futures drop below these supports, selling signals might be generated. A bearish signal would also be triggered if the 7-period moving average and the 21-period moving average cross. Up to now, these signals have not come to be yet. That is why the technical constellation can be assessed as neutral this morning. U.S. Nymex above average: Oil futures remained on a high level in Asian trade but are currently pulling back from earlier highs. The API's bearish data on US oil inventories weighs on oil futures. However, the EIA's bullish monthly energy report is preventing losses. The traded volume at NYMEX is about on average this morning. Investors are waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as for news on the output losses in Canada, whereas there are no important economic indicators due today. Moreover, the DOE's report on US oil inventories is due at 4.30 p.m.

Forecast: Crude oil +0.4; Distillates -0.8; Gasoline -0.6 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +3.4; Distillates -1.4; Gasoline +0.3 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 11-5)
380cst $191
180cst $293
MGO $410

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 11-5)
380cst $206
180cst $263
MGO $404

Singapore (delivered indications 11-5)

Brent is up +$0.67. Singapore paper is reflecting the same with +$6.00 for 180cst with +$4.95 for 380cst for May, and for June 180cst +$6.00 and 380cst with +$5.75 with MGO contracts May with +$1.47 and in June with +$1.40. The cargo market is following now with 180cst -$9.93, 380cst with -$8.31 and MGO with -$1.34.

380cst $215
180cst $220
MGO $405

Fujairah (delivered indications 11-5)

380cst $221
180cst $225
MGO $473

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $198
MGO 0.1%S: $378