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Oil prices fell this morning as investors cashed in on a 20-percent rise over the past month, outweighing the impact of crude production cuts in Canada where a huge wildfire has disrupted oil sands operations.

Wednesday morning oil futures in London and New York rose but in the afternoon they erased all of their gains. Initially, wild fires in Canada and the decline in Venezuela's oil production fostered oil prices. However, the DOE's bearish data on US oil inventories in the afternoon prompted investors to take profits. Still, oil futures failed to sustainably break below Tuesday's lows. This prevented a technical downward move. On Thursday, oil futures saw a similar development. At first, prices gained considerable ground but in the second half of the day market players locked in profits again. Like on Wednesday, oil prices were mainly bolstered by the wildfires in Canada. Due to security reasons, some of the oil installations in the region were shut down, denting supplies. However, experts anticipate that this will only temporarily support oil prices. Iran has meanwhile announced that it has raised its oil output, almost reaching its target of 4 mbpd. Oil futures thus erased earlier gains kicking off Friday in the red.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 398.75 USD on Thursday, this was 4.50 USD above Wednesday's settlement. With some 38,200 deals, the traded volume (front month) was below average.

Oil futures have reached their first price target after the downward correction they had seen in the first half of this week. Selling pressure has thus slightly eased but there might be more downward potential if oil prices drop below the lows hit earlier this week. The selling signals of the RSI and the Stochastic indicator have meanwhile lost their impact on oil futures. The Stochastic indicator might even give off a buying signal if its lines cross. The 21-period moving average remains a key-support which might still be tested. More considerable downward potential will only be generated if oil futures drop below this marker and below the lows hit in the first half of this week. Over all, we assess the technical constellation as neutral.

U.S.

Nymex above average: Oil futures kept track of their decline in East Asia and in Globex electronic trade this morning, dropping below Thursday's lows. The key-supports are still intact, though. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average this morning. Market players are waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as for the release of some economic indicators due today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 6-5)
380cst $194
180cst $295
MGO $410

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 6-5)
380cst $209
180cst $264
MGO $413

Singapore (delivered indications 6-5)

380cst $213
180cst $220
MGO $407

Fujairah (delivered indications 6-5)

380cst $225
180cst $230
MGO $448

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $218
MGO 0.1%S: $403