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Oil slipped to a one-month low this morning after a surprise fall in gasoline demand in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, and doubts whether oil producers can agree an output freeze to dampen a global supply glut.

Losses remained limited at ICE and NYMEX Monday morning despite the bearish fundamentals and the bearish technical constellation. WTI and Brent found strong supports at 36.20 USD and 38.20 USD, respectively. These first supports, which also served as the lower limits of the short-term downtrends, favoured short-covering after Friday's hefty losses. Eventually, oil futures remained under pressure, though. After a phase of consolidation, selling pressure prevailed in the evening. Since scepticism over a potential output freeze is growing, Russia's output climbed on a fresh record-high in March and US oil demand declined in January (reported after our office hours), oil futures broke below the supports which had been strong until then. This triggered another technical sell-off. Moreover, US crude oil inventories are expected to have increased in the week ending April 1. Oil futures in London and New York thus kept track of the decline they had seen in the morning, ending the day at the lowest levels since the beginning of March.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at 328.75 USD on Monday, this was 7.00 USD below Friday's settlement. With some 47,200 deals, the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The lines of the Stochastic indicator keep diverging at the ICE charts. That is why the indicator can still be interpreted as bearish. At the WTI chart the Stochastic indicator is losing its impact as its lines are already running in parallels at this chart. Last night's sharp decline has consumed most of the technical downward potential and so the impact of the selling signals of the Stochastic indicator is waning. When oil futures broke below Monday's lows fresh downward was generated but oil futures are already trading near the lower Bollinger Bands. Along with the fact that the market is oversold, this might favour short-covering. From the merely technical perspective, the situation is still bearish. However, a light upward correction has become more likely. That is why we are assessing the technical constellation as neutral to bearish this morning.

U.S.

Nymex above average: Oil futures dropped below Monday's lows in Asian trading but slightly recovered in Globex electronic trade this morning. Hence, they remain range bound hovering near their lows. The traded volume at NYMEX is slightly above average this morning. Investors are now waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as for the release of the economic indicators due today. They are also eying further comments on the meeting of important oil producers and on the release of the API's data on US oil inventories which is due at 10.30 p.m.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 5-4)
380cst $148
180cst $270
MGO $354

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 5-4)
380cst $160
180cst $204
MGO $352

Singapore (delivered indications 5-4)

Brent is bullishh with -$1.03 for Apr contracts. Singapore paper is down with -$6.75 for 180cst with -$6.25 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180cst -$6.50 and 380cst with -$6.50 with MGO contracts Apr with -$1.59 and in May with -$1.63.The cargo market is down with 180cst -$7.20, 380cst with -$8.06 and MGO with -$2.33.

380cst $173
180cst $180
MGO $329

Fujairah (delivered indications 5-4)

380cst $169
180cst $175
MGO $424

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $148
MGO 0.1%S: $309