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API estimates a large draw in U.S. oil inventories - awaiting today's EIA data (Brent: $40.7)

After slumping just shy of $40 yesterday, oil is up to around $41 this morning; the main reason being a draw in U.S. crude oil inventories and Asian economic data showing improvement overnight.

Last night's weekly oil stocks data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a 1.9 mio. barrel drop in crude oil stock where expectations were a slight increase. Now all eyes will be on this afternoon's weekly oil inventory report from the EIA. Again, expectations are a slight increase.

Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) - an inflation indicator - showed a slight increase to 1.5% (from 1.3% previous) in November, possibly a sign that growth in the huge country is picking up again. In an attempt to spur growth, the central bank of China has cut interest rates several times and reduced the bank reserve requirements as well.

In its monthly forecast, the Energy Information Administration cut its 2016 Brent oil price expectations forecast to $56. It also forecast a decrease in U.S. crude oil production of 8.8 mio. barrels per day in 2016. November production declined by around 60,000 bpd. Read the entire report here.

On the economic data front, today sees German trade data and U.S. October Wholesales Inventories; but main potential market mover will be the release of the weekly U.S. oil inventories this afternoon (16.30 CET).