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WTI oil futures fell to a two-week low this morning, amid speculation weekly supply data due later in the week will show U.S. crude inventories rose at a faster pace than expected last week.

Oil prices at ICE and NYMEX lost ground in electronic morning trading on Tuesday, falling below Monday's lows, in a fundamentally strongly bearish market. Yet a technically driven downward correction entailing technical selling orders was not triggered as market participants were being cautious ahead of the release of several monthly energy reports and of U.S. petroleum inventories. Comments made by OPEC members on the current situation within the cartel, did not bring about anything new and the IEA's yearly report had no lasting influence on oil prices either. Bearish comments of BP experts, who assume that the oil market will stay oversupplied for many years longer, kept a lid on prices. The bulls took advantage of the low price level to cover some of their short positions ahead of the expiry of ICE gasoil for November delivery in a market at little volume due to today's U.S. Veterans Day. The upward potential was limited, though, by expectations of a build in Cushing crude stocks. The neutral energy report of the EIA, released after office hours, had no immediate impact on prices while the bearish API data weighed in late trading in London and New York.

ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 449.75 USD on Tuesday, this is 1.75 USD above Monday's settlement. With some 36,100 deals the traded volume (front month) was far below average.

WTI and Brent are still trading within their downtrends that are limited by the 7-day MA and the lower Bollinger bands. In the absence of fresh signals oil's downward potential has meanwhile been reduced. However, should the two lines of the Stochastic indicator cross, a buying signal would be triggered and an upward correction be initiated that could propel oil prices until the 7-day MA resistance. As no fresh signals have been triggered yet we consider the technical constellation still as neutral this morning.

U.S.

Nymex is above average: Oil futures lost ground in East-Asia, traders being worried about ongoing oversupply after the API's report. In Globex electronic trade this morning futures rebounded after having failed to breach their Tuesday's lows. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average this morning. In the absence of any more economic indicators investors are waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open today.

Forecast: Crude oil +1.1; Distillates -1.1; Gasoline -0.6 million barrels vs previous week.

API: Crude oil +6.3; Distillates -0.5; Gasoline -3.2 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 11-11)
380cst $221
180cst $284
MGO $486

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 11-11)
380cst $239
180cst $294
MGO $472

Singapore (delivered indications 11-11)

Brent is losing with -$0.43 for December contracts. Singapore paper is down with -$2.85 for 180cst with -$2.50 for 380cst for Nov, and for Dec 180 cst -$2.95 and 380cst with -$2.90 with MGO contracts Nov down with -$0.52 and in Dec with -$0.50. The cargo market is yet to react with 180cst -$1.61, 380cst with -$2.20 and MGO with up +$0.04.

380cst $238
180cst $247
MGO $446

Fujairah (delivered indications 11-11)

380cst $238
180cst $275
MGO $608

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $213
MGO 0.1%S: $413