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Crude oil prices rose in Asia this morning as investors looked ahead to rig count data in the U.S. for direction and noted that a hurricane off the U.S. East Coast was not a direct threat to supplies for now.

The situation at the oil market had already been bullish on Thursday morning, pointing to further tests of the upside. Market fundamentals provided short-term bullish cues like hurricane Joaquin, which was still expected to affect the oil infrastructure along the US East Coast. Whilst this bullish factor still predominated, the technical constellation generated several buying signals which indicated that oil futures would test their upward potential. Traders on the physical market increased their buying orders at NYMEX in order to hedge their deliveries against possible loading problems and production losses at refineries which might be caused by storm, flooding or power outages. Speculators joined in, increasing their long-positions. The rise in product futures on the NYMEX exchange sent the other contracts higher as well. WTI broke above its key resistance near its medium term resistances at 46.45 and 46.50 USD, triggering short covering - the more so, as the Stochastic indicator was bullish. Technical buying pressure increased and so WTI surged to levels near the upper Bollinger Band, which we had already regarded as a price target before. However, the US crude oil contract found strong support at this level and so traders who held long positions took some profits after the sharp price increase. Besides, updated news on hurricane Joaquin showed that the storm would take a different route, not heading directly for the US East Coast any longer. That is why some speculators cut their long positions, which made oil futures plummet in the evening.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 465.75 USD on Thursday, this is +1.75 USD above Wednesday's settlement. With some 59,000 deals the traded volume (front month) was slightly above average.

The buying signal the Stochastic indicator had given at the WTI chart has meanwhile waned. At the Brent and Gasoil charts, the lines of the indicator converge again, too. They have even met already reducing the bullish bias of the indicator. WTI has meanwhile re-entered its (medium-term) technical triangle. The technical constellation is not giving any fresh cues at the moment, which is why we assess it as neutral. It is rather unlikely that the technical indicators will give clear signals today. However, the resistances and supports of the short- and mid-term trends should have become more important again.

U.S.

Nymex above average: After Thursday evening's price slump, oil futures only marginally recovered from yesterday's lows in electronic trading this morning. Oil prices in London and New York don't show any clear direction yet. The traded volume at NYMEX is below average this morning. Investors are now waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open and for the release of the economic indicators which are due today. They will particularly eye the official data on the US labour market.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 2-10)
380cst $222
180cst $270
MGO $489

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 2-10)
380cst $232
180cst $283
MGO $466

Singapore (delivered indications 2-10)

Brent is losing with -$0.66. Singapore paper losing with -$1.45 for 180cst with -$2.30 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst -$2.70 and 380cst with -$2.80 with MGO contracts Oct losing with -$0.77 and in Nov with -$0.77. The cargo market is gaining with 180cst +$5.63, 380cst with +$7.47 and MGO with +$0.63.

380cst $226
180cst $246
MGO $444

Fujairah (delivered indications 2-10)

380cst $236
180cst $259
MGO $609

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $218
MGO 0.1%S: $428