Mon 6 Jul 2015, 10:29 GMT

Global Vision Market Report


Market report from Global Vision Bunkers B.V.



Oil futures fell to the lowest level in almost three months this morning, as appetite for risker assets weakened after Greek voters rejected conditions of a rescue package from creditors on Sunday.

Oil futures in London and New York were weighed down by bearish market fundamentals as well as a bearish technical constellation on Friday morning. In the course of the day, they thus tested their downward potential. Until late Friday afternoon, there weren't any larger price swings, however, as US trading places closed early due to the holiday on Saturday. Traders preferred to stay on the sidelines, the more so as they were waiting for breaking news regarding the nuke talks with Iran and for the Greek referendum which took place on Sunday. Eventually, selling pressure prevailed, however. The first rise in the number of active US oil rigs since December 2014 spurred doubt that US oil production will really decline. When oil futures broke below Thursday's lows around 5 p.m., technical selling pressure increased. Automatically triggered selling orders made oil prices slump ahead of the weekend and so, oil futures settled with fresh lows. The result of Greece's referendum and the outlook of a lasting deal over Iran's nuclear programme are pushing oil futures further down this morning.

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 555.00 USD on Friday, this is -19.25 USD below Thursday's settlement. With some 26,000 deals the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The selling signals that were generated at ICE charts on Friday are still affecting oil futures this morning as the lines of the stochastic indicator keep drifting apart and the indicator thus remains bearish. At the WTI chart, the signals haven't been confirmed yet but this might be the case if the lines keep drifting further apart in the course of the day. Oil futures had already breached several important supports on Friday. WTI broke below a medium-term side-trend around 60 USD generated fresh potential down to the supports at 54.00 and 54.25 USD. At the same time, markets are clearly oversold after the decline they have seen in the past few days. WTI is trading below the lower Bollinger Band which might favour technical short-coverings. Since oil futures have already dropped below Friday's lows, however, we assess the technical constellation as bearish this morning.

U.S.

Nymex below average: Oil futures have already dropped below Friday's low over night. This morning they are tending to the downside, weighed down by the technical constellation and the bearish market fundamentals. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average at this time of the day. Investors are waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open, the development regarding the nuke talks, comments on Greece's referendum and for the economic indicators that are on the agenda today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 6-7)
380cst $334
180cst $462
MGO $588

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 6-7)
380cst $344
180cst $394
MGO $558

Singapore (delivered indications 6-7)

WTI is losing with -$2.23. Singapore paper is down with -$14.25 for 180cst up with -$15.50 for 380cst for Jul, and for Aug 180 cst -$13.00 and 380cst with -$14.50 with MGO contracts Jun losing with -$2.46 and in Jul with -$2.45. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst -$3.73, 380cst with -$3.32 and MGO down with -$0.01.

380cst $324
180cst $336
MGO $536

Fujairah (delivered indications 6-7)

380cst $319
180cst $341
MGO $719

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $305
MGO 0.1%S: $521

MGO  

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