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Oil prices were sharply lower this morning after Greece defaulted on a loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund and following bearish overnight supply data.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX already tended to the upside on Tuesday morning, breaching their first resistances in the first half of the day. The technical selling pressure that had weighed on oil futures in the past few days was gone. After oil futures had tested their potential down to the Bollinger Bands, investors covered some of their short-positions. This was also favoured by the expected draw in US crude oil inventories and speculations over a last-minute-deal for Greece. Oil futures thus already pared Monday's losses Tuesday around noon. They then consolidated near their resistances at 575.00 USD Gasoil, 63.00 USD Brent and 59.00 USD WTI. Traders were waiting for news on the nuke talks with Iran. As expected, the deadline was postponed (to July 7). Oil futures extended their gains in late-afternoon trading, with the change in the front month of NYMEX product futures (Heating Oil and Gasoil) causing some volatility. In the evening, the API released its report on US oil inventories, which came in rather bearish showing builds in product and crude oil stockpiles. This weighed on oil prices over night, as did reports saying that the oil production of the USA and OPEC had renewedly increased.

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 573.75 USD on Tuesday, this is +9.25 USD above Monday's settlement. With some 44,500 deals the traded volume (front month) was about on average.

The stochastic indicator gave a buying signal at the Brent and Gasoil charts this morning after its lines had crossed. Partly, the upward potential generated by this buying signal has already been spent during Tuesday’s price increase, though. It looks as though the indicator would confirm the buying signal at the WTI chart as well soon but the lines of the indicator haven't crossed clearly enough yet to generate a signal. After WTI had bounced off the lower Bollinger Band, the contract saw a correction up to the MA7 and 21 which are now key-resistances. If these resistances are sustainably breached, there would be further upward potential. Against the backdrop of the signals provided at the Brent and Gasoil charts, we are currently assessing the technical constellation as slightly bullish. For a sustainable rise, the stochastic indicator needs to give a buying signal at the WTI chart as well or the MA7 and 21 at this chart have to be exceeded.

U.S.

Nymex below average: The API's bearish data on US oil inventories and the reports on a rise in US and OPEC oil production weighed on oil futures this morning. The traded volume at NYMEX is about on average at this time of the day. Investors are waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open, for the economic indicators that are on the agenda today, and for the release of the DOE's report at 4.30 p.m.

Forecast: Crude oil -1.2; Distillates +1.1; Gasoline +0.1 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +1.9; Distillates +0.3; Gasoline +0.3 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 1-7)
380cst $338
180cst $464
MGO $598

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 1-7)
380cst $347
180cst $395
MGO $588

Singapore (delivered indications 1-7)

WTI is gaining with $0.40. Singapore paper is down with -$1.60 for 180cst up with -$1.25 for 380cst for Jul, and for Aug 180 cst -$1.10 and 380cst with -$0.75 with MGO contracts Jun gaining with +$0.37 and in Jul with +$0.68. The cargo market is bullish with 180cst +$2.26, 380cst with +$5.69 and MGO down with +$0.73.

380cst $338
180cst $357
MGO $553

Fujairah (delivered indications 1-7)

380cst $334
180cst $356
MGO $730

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $325
MGO 0.1%S: $543