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WTI oil futures rose to the highest level in a week this morning, amid speculation weekly supply data due later in the session will show U.S. crude inventories fell at a faster pace than expected last week.

The technical constellation indicated first buying signals at the oil market on Tuesday morning after a rather calm start at the beginning of the week. The stochastic indicator at the Brent chart encouraged upward tests which caused a slightly bullish constellation. In the course of the morning, these signals were confirmed at the WTI and the Gasoil chart as well at the charts of Heating Oil and Gasoline at NYMEX. This triggered a technical buying wave and stop loss orders as expected which reinforced again in early US trading. Besides, the EIA announced that it counts on a decrease of 91,000 bpd in US shale oil production in July and analysts counted on the API to announce a fresh decrease in US crude oil stocks. Even though this news is fundamentally bullish, the price rallye already started before and is to be interpreted thus as technical movement. The price increase was accelerated by the breach of several important resistances like at 59.50 USD and 61.00 USD WTI. The EIA's monthly energy report was to be interpreted as bearish but the API's figures showed a bullish picture. Oil futures finally settled higher near fresh highs supported by technical buying orders and the US oil inventory data as per API.

ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 587.50 USD on Tuesday, this is +15.75 USD above Monday's settlement. With some 44,400 deals the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The stochastic indicator triggered bullish signals yesterday by the crossing of its lines. Fresh upward margins have been caused by the breaches of the 7 day moving average and the 21 day moving average and as oil futures surpassed their downtrends. The stochastic indicator confirmed its bullish tendency again as it breached its 50 line. No further technical bullish signals are expected to be generated in the course of the day due to the signals which have been triggered so far and due to the fresh upward margins. But we consider the technical constellation still as bullish this morning.

U.S.

Nymex above average: The API's bullish data and the expectation of a continuous decrease in US oil production in combination with the technical bullish constellation push oil futures upwards. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average at this time of the day. Market players are waiting for the European market and forex markets to open and for the economic indicators that are on the agenda today. Moreover, they are looking ahead to the OPEC's monthly energy report and to the DOE's report on US oil inventories due at 4.30 p.m. this afternoon.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 10-6)
380cst $337
180cst $469
MGO $630

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 10-6)
380cst $347
180cst $412
MGO $611

Singapore (delivered indications 10-6)

WTI is gaining with +$2.95. Singapore paper is up with +$12.75 for 180cst with +$14.15 for 380cst for Jun, and for Jul 180 cst +$14.25 and 380cst with +$15.75 with MGO contracts Jun gaining with +$3.10 and in Jul with +$3.15. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst +$1.35, 380cst with -$0.52 and MGO up with +$0.24.

380cst $358
180cst $373
MGO $566

Fujairah (delivered indications 10-6)

380cst $349
180cst $376
MGO $723

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $348
MGO 0.1%S: $583