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Crude oil futures edged lower this morning, one day after posting its biggest one-day rally in two months after data showed that oil supplies in the U.S. rose less than expected last week.

Oil futures in London and New York tended to the upside on Wednesday morning, fostered by the API's bullish report on US oil inventories and news on a decline in US output. Moreover, the technical constellation favoured a rise. Particularly WTI was pushed higher by the reports on a possible drop in production at the US shale oil fields. The US benchmark crude soon exceeded its key-resistance at 54.00 USD. Still, market players rather stayed on the side-lines, waiting for the IEA's monthly energy report and the DOE's data on US oil inventories. The figures of the IEA's report gave no reasons for a further rise in oil futures even though the agency had upwardly revised its forecast for global oil demand growth. The growth in supplies is still expected to outpace the increase in oil demand, which is why the market is likely to remain oversupplied. Even though Russia's energy ministry said that it had "unprecedentedly active" talks with the OPEC, these talks were not about cutting production. Early in the afternoon, oil futures were buoyed by the euro that had steadied during the ECB's press conference. However, trading still remained subdued ahead of the release of the DOE's report. Prices only rallied, after the DOE had released its data. WTI gained the most. Stop-loss buying orders were triggered particularly by the decline in US crude oil production and the less massive than expected builds in US crude oil stockpiles. Since this bullish factor affects the US market more strongly than the European market, WTI gained more ground than Brent. That is why the spread between the two crude oil sorts temporarily narrowed to less than 5 USD. At last, oil futures finished far higher than on Tuesday.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 560.75 USD on Wednesday, this is +15.00 USD above Tuesday's settlement. With some 65,000 deals the traded volume (front month) was above average.

The stochastic indicator is only slightly bullish at ICE and NYMEX charts this morning. When WTI broke above the important resistances at 54.00 and 56.00 USD, more buying cues were provided, however. This generated more upward potential. Wednesday evening's sharp rise has already absorbed most of the buying cues but there is new upward potential for WTI. If oil futures exceed Wednesday's highs, technical buying pressure will renewedly increase. Until then, we assess the technical constellation as neutral to bullish as important resistances have already been breached on Wednesday and new cues - for example from the stochastic indicator or the RSI - are still lacking.

U.S.

Nymex above avarage: Oil futures at first kept track of Wednesday evening's gains this morning as market fundamentals turned slightly bullish at least briefly. However, gains have been limited by now by the first resistances. The traded volume at NYMEX is on average at this time of the day. Investors are waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open, for news concerning Yemen, the talks between Russia and OPEC, OPEC's monthly energy report and for the economic indicators that are on the agenda today.

Forecast: Crude oil +3.6; Distillates +0.5; Gasoline +0.1 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil +1.3; Distillates +2.0; Gasoline -2.1 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +2.6; Distillates -0.6; Gasoline -4.1 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 16-4)
380cst $318
180cst $477
MGO $603

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 16-4)
380cst $327
180cst $386
MGO $610

Singapore (delivered indications 16-4)

WTI is gaining with +$2.21. Singapore paper is bullish with +$10.55 for 180cst with +$10.15 for 380cst for May, and for Jun 180 cst +$10.05 and 380cst with +$10.50 with MGO contracts may gaining with +$2.06 and in Jun with +$2.02. The cargo market is bullish with 180cst +$4.07, 380cst with +$4.32 and MGO with +$0.52.

380cst $338
180cst $358
MGO $548

Fujairah (delivered indications 16-4)

380cst $337
180cst $359
MGO $729

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $325
MGO 0.1%S: $557