---

Oil prices fell this morning as industry data showed a larger-than-expected weekly increase in U.S. stockpiles and as Saudi Arabia reported record output in March.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX started without direction on Tuesday morning. Market players liquidated some of their long positions to take some profit due to the strong price increase on Easter Monday. Therefore, oil futures tested their downside. But they didn't drop strongly. There were no fundamental signals in the course of the afternoon but technical buying pressure increased due to the breach of the supports at 52.00 USD WTI and 58.00 USD Brent. The EIA released its monthly report in the course of the evening which triggered some bullish signals due to the agency's correction of its US oil production forecast even though the report is to be interpreted as bearish in general. Therefore, upward potential stayed limited in the late afternoon after some technical buying orders. The API released its US oil inventory data last night which was to be interpreted as bearish weighing on price levels.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at 540.50 USD on Tuesday, this is +1.75 USD above Monday's settlement. With some 45,600 deals the traded volume (front month) was below average.

Neither the stochastic indicator nor the RSI at ICE and NYMEX triggered fresh signals this morning. The RSI stays at the neutral level without any chance to trigger fresh signals while the bullish influence of the stochastic indicator is expected to be absorbed. The indicator's lines at the WTI chart already approach again and could generate a selling signal if they cross. But there are no signals so far. Therefore, we consider the technical constellation as neutral this morning. The key resistance at 54.00 USD WTI limits upward margins so far.

U.S.

Nymex above avarage: Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX return from their Tuesday's highs due to the bearish EIA monthly report and the bearish US oil inventory report as per API. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average at this time of the day. Market players are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open, for news concerning Yemen and for economic indicators that are on the agenda today. They are also focusing on the official US oil inventory data as per DOE which is to be released this afternoon at 4.30 pm.

Forecast: Crude oil +3.4; Distillates +0.9; Gasoline -1.3 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +12.1; Distillates -0.3; Gasoline +2.7 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 8-4)
380cst $304
180cst $474
MGO $588

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 8-4)
380cst $315
180cst $382
MGO $578

Singapore (delivered indications 8-4)

WTI is gaining with +$0.88. Singapore paper is bullish with +$4.25 for 180cst with +$3.80 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst +$3.80 and 380cst with +$4.25 with MGO contracts Apr gaining with +$0.62 and in May with +$0.71. The cargo market is bullish with 180cst +$6.04, 380cst with +$4.90 and MGO bullish with +$0.63.

380cst $324
180cst $341
MGO $536

Fujairah (delivered indications 8-4)

380cst $327
180cst $343
MGO $732

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $308
MGO 0.1%S: $523