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WTI oil futures edged lower this morning, amid speculation weekly supply data due later in the session will show U.S. crude inventories rose to the highest level on record last week.

After oil futures at ICE and NYMEX had started rather weak on Tuesday morning they increased in the course of the morning due to forex trading which gained some influence on dollar-negotiated oil futures in the last few weeks and month. The euro considerably increased after the release of some European economic indicators which surpassed expectations. Therefore, the dollar eased. Oil futures became less expensive for traders outside the United States and buying pressure at the oil market increased. Brent and Gasoil breached their key resistances at € 51.23 and € 485.7 triggering a technical buying wave. Buying orders in which market players engaged before were automatically triggered pushing oil futures upwards to their Tuesday's highs around midday. Therefore, the euro also increased. There were hardly any fundamental news at the oil market and the market situation stayed bearish, therefore. The comments of the Fed member James Bullard and the positive US economic indicators supported the dollar in the afternoon causing a correction in forex trading. Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX returned from their day highs due to this correction and stayed weak until the evening in a rather bearish market. Reactions on the API's US oil inventory report were rather cautious and oil futures finally settled lower in London and New York.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at € 479.52 on Tuesday, this is -€ 4.12 below Monday's settlement. With some 61,700 deals the traded volume (front month) was above average.

Short-term buying signals were triggered by the breach of the key resistances at € 485.7 Gasoil and € 51.23 Brent. But these buying signals are already absorbed again. Short-term upward trends have been built due to the upward tests of the last few days. A fresh technical triangle is to be seen at the Brent and the Gasoil chart this morning. The triangle's support and resistance lines could trigger again some short-term signals while even the stochastic indicator might trigger some important signals today. If the indicator's lines sustainably cross at ICE and NYMEX a bearish signal would be triggered. Therefore, we consider the technical constellation as neutral this morning while we don't exclude a considerable technical reaction today if necessary signals are triggered.

U.S.

Nymex far above average: Oil futures hardly changed this morning starting almost at their Tuesday's settlement levels. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average at this time of the day. Market players are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open and for economic indicators that are on the agenda today. Moreover, they are focusing on the DOE's data (3.30 p.m.) and the official US oil inventory data as per DOE.

Forecast: Crude oil +5.6; Distillates -0.5; Gasoline -1.7 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +4.8; Distillates -0.6; Gasoline -2.6 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 25-3)
380cst $301
180cst $465
MGO $589

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 25-3)
380cst $316
180cst $371
MGO $599

Singapore (delivered indications 25-3)

WTI is losing with -$0.56. Singapore paper is down with -$2.75 for 180cst with -$2.75 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst -$2.50 and 380cst with -$2.50 with MGO contracts Apr losing with -$0.70 and in May with -$0.68. The cargo market is bullish with 180cst +$8.56, 380cst with +$7.42 and MGO bearish with +$0.73.

380cst $317
180cst $336
MGO $531

Fujairah (delivered indications 25-3)

380cst $321
180cst $341
MGO $750

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $291
MGO 0.1%S: $509