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Brent crude oil fell this morning and was on track for its third straight weekly loss, hurt by oversupply worries after Kuwait said OPEC had no choice but to maintain output levels.

When the dollar slumped after the announcement of the FOMC's meeting minutes on Wednesday, oil futures in London and New York surged. Consequently prices at ICE and NYMEX started on a higher level on Thursday edging lower, however. The comments conveyed by Kuwait's oil minister added to the bearish market fundamentals. He justified the OPEC's production quota saying that the cartel didn't have any alternative to defend its market shares. The dollar favored the decline in oil prices as it made up for some of its losses, making oil futures more expensive for investors outside the USA. Ahead of the expiry of the April WTI contract this evening traders also adjusted their spreadbets cutting the positions by means of which they bet on an increase in the WTI's price discount compared to Brent. That is why Brent and Gasoil dropped more significantly on Thursday than WTI. In late-afternoon trade and in the early evening, the US benchmark crude oil was buoyed by short-covering but eventually, WTI finished with losses, too.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at 520.75 USD on Thursday, this is +2.25 USD above Wednesday's settlement. With some 61,300 deals the traded volume (front month) was above average.

This morning the RSI climbed above 30% at the Brent and the Gasoil chart, giving a buying signal. The buying signals of the stochastic indicator had already been generated a few days ago but this indicator remains slightly bullish as well. Even though the RSI indicates an upward move at oil prices but the resistances of the short-term downtrends of Brent (55.30 USD), Gasoil (534,25 USD) and WTI (44,05 and 44.70 USD) are still strong limiting the upward potential. Only if oil futures break above these resistances sustainably will the bullish signals show their full effect. That is why we are currently assessing the technical constellation as neutral to bullish. If the RSI drops back below 30%, the technical constellation will turn neutral again, with the downtrends giving direction.

U.S.

Nymex far above average: Oil futures stayed on a lower level in electronic trading this morning. As new cues are still lacking, they aren't showing any clear direction yet, however. The traded volume at NYMEX is about on average at this time of the day. Investors are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open, for news concerning the nuclear negotiations with Iran and for the few economic indicators due today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 20-3)
380cst $306
180cst $465
MGO $588

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 20-3)
380cst $316
180cst $362
MGO $596

Singapore (delivered indications 20-3)

WTI is losing with -$0.90. Singapore paper is up with -$4.00 for 180cst with -$4.50 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst -$4.00 and 380cst with -$4.15 with MGO contracts Apr gaining with -$1.60 and in May with -$1.59. The cargo market is bullish with 180cst +$6.85, 380cst with +$5.77 and MGO bearish with +$2.33.

380cst $314
180cst $333
MGO $531

Fujairah (delivered indications 20-3)

380cst $318
180cst $343
MGO $741

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $283
MGO 0.1%S: $508