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Brent oil futures fell to the lowest level in more than two weeks this morning, as a firmer dollar weighed on the commodities complex.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX started weak on Monday after analysts at Goldman Sachs published a bearish price forecast last weekend. Therefore, futures tested their downside which was limited until the afternoon by the supports at 49.35 USD WTI and 59.00 USD Brent. The analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch revised up their short-term price forecasts on Monday afternoon but still count on a decrease in oil prices until the end of the second quarter. In spite of bearish expectations, oil futures orientated in the contrary direction in the course of the afternoon. Experts at Genscape which usually publish accurate estimations concerning crude oil stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma count on a rather weak increase in stocks. Therefore, WTI jumped upwards followed by all other futures. In the course of the afternoon, market players used the increase in prices at ICE for profit taking as the figures in Cushing primarily concern WTI. Brent and Gasoil breached to fresh day lows where they finally settled while WTI stayed strong keeping most of its gains.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 575.75 USD on Monday, this is -6.50 USD below Friday's settlement. With some 32,200 deals the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The lines of WTI's stochastic indicator converge again after the indicator was rather bearish yesterday after its breach of the 50 line. The stochastic indicator at ICE is to be interpreted as neutral as well as long as its lines run parallel. As there are no important signals for the moment we consider the technical constellation as neutral this morning. WTI's downward potential ranges to the support at 49.25 USD while Brent's potential ranges to 58.00 USD. Technical selling pressure will only increase if futures sustainably breach these marks.

U.S.

Nymex far below average: Oil futures eased in early Tuesday trading. Brent and Gasoil already mark near their Monday's lows testing further downside. Currently, there are no important signals but the easing euro-dollar parity could weigh on oil futures in the course of the morning as futures become more expensive for traders out of the eurozone, therefore. The traded volume at NYMEX is about on average at this time of the day. Investors are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open, for news concerning the strikes at US oil refineries and Iranian nuclear negotiations and for economic indicators that are on the agenda today, as well as for the API's US oil inventory data which is to be released this evening at 9.30 pm.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 10-3)
380cst $325
180cst $459
MGO $653

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 10-3)
380cst $340
180cst $382
MGO $657

Singapore (delivered indications 10-3)

WTI is losing with -$1.22. Singapore paper is down with -$7.00 for 180cst with -$6.25 for 380cst for Mar, and for Apr 180 cst -$5.75 and 380cst with -$5.00 with MGO contracts Mar losing with -$0.96 and in Apr with -$1.00. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst -$9.60, 380cst with -$8.25 and MGO bearish with -$1.39.

380cst $329
180cst $350
MGO $561

Fujairah (delivered indications 10-3)

380cst $350
180cst $376
MGO $756

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $300
MGO 0.1%S: $543