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Crude oil futures declined for the first time in four sessions this morning following the release of a mostly bearish report from the International Energy Agency on global oil supply and demand.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX started weak on Monday morning testing their downside. The slightly bullish technical constellation limited downtests. Since there were no bearish signals and as market players were waiting for the OPEC report in the afternoon oil futures recovered again until midday. The OPEC report is to be interpreted as bullish as the cartel revised up OPEC oil demand in 2015 and as they count on a lower oil production of non-OPEC countries then they did before. These facts together with the still slightly bullish technical constellation pushed oil futures upwards in the afternoon. News from Libya which announced that the strike at the Libyan port Hariga has finished and that production will start up again soon entered the market in late trading. The IEA published its medium-term 5-year-outlook concerning the oil market last night. This report is also to be interpreted as rather bullish. While ICE Gasoil stayed strong until late trading crude oil futures at ICE and NYMEX finally settled lower and gave back their interim gains during the night.

ICE Gasoil contract for February delivery settled at 570.00 USD on Monday, this is 15.50 USD above Friday's settlement. With some 26,000 deals the traded volume (front month) was far below average.

Meanwhile, the stochastic indiator's lines run parallel again at the WTI chart. Therefore, this indicator is to be interpreted as neutral. The stochastic indicator at the Brent chart is neutral as well as its lines converged again. If they cross in the course of the day a selling signal would be triggered. The indicator at the Gasoil chart is still slightly bullish but currently has only a slight influence due to the upcoming expiry of Gasoil's front month on Thursday and as the trading interest for February contracts is very low. Short coverings are expected to having distorted the indicator to be bullish due to the rolling of risk positions. In total, we consider the technical constellation as neutral this morning.

U.S.

Nymex above average: Brent markt at the level of its Monday's lows while product futures stay rather strong and are supported by the strikes at US refineries. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average at this time of the day. Market players are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open, for news concerning strikes at US oil refineries and the economic indicators which are to be released today as well as for the monthly reports of the EIA and the IEA and for US oil inventory data as per API which is to be released tonight at 10.30 pm.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 10-2)
380cst $331
180cst $387
MGO $635

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 10-2)
380cst $337
180cst $370
MGO $619

Singapore (delivered indications 10-2)

WTI is gaining with +$0.31. Singapore paper is down with -$3.30 for 180cst with -$3.30 for 380cst for Feb, and for Mar 180 cst -$1.50 and 380cst with -$1.35 with MGO contracts Feb bullish with +$1.05 and in Mar with +$0.98. The cargo market is bullish with 180cst +$22.96, 380cst with +$22.96 and MGO with +$2.90.

380cst $347
180cst $361
MGO $541

Fujairah (delivered indications 10-2)

380cst $347
180cst $371
MGO $770

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $305
MGO 0.1%S: $549