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WTI oil futures were under pressure this morning, as market participants awaited the release of weekly supply data out of the U.S. later in the session to gauge the strength of oil demand from the world's largest consumer.

Oil futures started without direction on Tuesday morning and continued to consolidate in a rather narrow range in the course of the day. The cold snap Juno which hit the United States wasn't as destructive as expected even though a state of emergency was declared in some parts of the North-eastern states. The restart of the Forcados pipeline in Nigeria was a slightly bearish factor in early trading but hardly influenced oil futures due to the market's oversupply. While the UBS revised down its price forecast for Brent, US economic figures were released mixed and weren't able to trigger any sustainable signal. Therefore, futures stayed at almost the same level until Tuesday afternoon. The euro gained some ground before the expected statement of the US Fed this evening, due to traders taking profit of the US currency. Dollar-negotiated oil futures became less expensive for traders outside the United States due to the dollar's easing tendency encouraging engagements in long positions. Thereupon, oil futures at ICE and NYMEX increased in late trading. Therefore, the technical constellation which was still slightly bearish in the morning changed and turned to bullish due to the stochastic indicator's buying signals at ICE and NYMEX. The US oil inventory data as per API which was released last night was bearish as the massive increase in US crude oil stocks was surprising. The figures didn't trigger any signal for a sustainable upward movement. Only gasoline expanded its gains once again, as US gasoline stocks registered an unexpected decrease.

ICE Gasoil contract for February delivery settled at 475.25 USD on Tuesday, this is ±0,00 USD versus Monday's settlement. With some 50,400 deals the traded volume (front month) was slightly below average.

The instable situation of the technical analysis was confirmed yesterday. Technical analysis was still slightly bearish on Tuesday morning but fresh buying signals were triggered in the course of the evening. The stochastic indicator at the Brent as well as at the WTI chart is still bullish this morning indicating more upside. But Brent consolidates at ICE and a technical triangle has formed at the Gasoil chart which still limits the trading range while the 7 day moving average is WTI's next resistance. Even though the stochastic indicator currently is still bullish we consider the technical constellation to be neutral to bullish. If the stochastic indicator at ICE surpasses the 50 line and/or if WTI sustainably breaches the 7 day moving average in the course of the day, fresh bullish signals might be triggered.

U.S.

Nymex above average: Oil futures returned from their late Tuesday's highs after the release of the API data last night but are consolidating in a still rather narrow range. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average at this time of the day. Market players are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open and will eye the situation in the geopolitical hotspots and the economic indicators which are to be released today. But market players will especially focus on the release of the DOE data and on the FOMC meeting late this evening.

Forecast: Crude oil +4.3; Distillates -2.2; Gasoline +0.7 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +12.7; Distillates -0.7; Gasoline -5.0 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 28-1)
380cst $352
180cst $380
MGO $582

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 28-1)
380cst $278
180cst $352
MGO $568

Singapore (delivered indications 28-1)

WTI is gaining with +$1.20. Singapore paper is up with +$7.75 for 180cst with +$7.00 for 380cst for Feb, and for Mar 180 cst +$7.50 and 380cst with +$6.85 with MGO contracts Feb bullish with +$0.55 and in Mar with +$0.60. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst +$7.68, 380cst with -$7.24 and MGO with -$0.10.

380cst $281
180cst $305
MGO $491

Fujairah (delivered indications 28-1)

380cst $295
180cst $321
MGO $847

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $245
MGO 0.1%S: $471