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Oil futures traded near four-year lows this morning, as market players continued to weigh the likelihood that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will cut output when it meets later this month.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX started weaker on Monday and followed their bearish guidelines and the fundamental sentiment. Japan's GDP growth weighed on the futures and showed that Japanese economy entered into recession. We consider the technical indicators neutral to bullish on Monday and limited downward movement. In the course of the afternoon, prices stabilised and consolidated their Friday's losses in a market situation with hardly any news. US economic data which was released in the afternoon were disappointing but traders seem to tend to consolidate their risk positions after last week's 4-year-low and the upcoming OPEC meeting causing short covering. Inspite of the slight counter movement in late trading oil futures settled lower on Monday evening in London and New York.

ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 697.75 USD on Monday, this is 0.25 USD below Friday's settlement. With some 70,000 deals the traded volume (front month) was above average.

The stochastic indicator at ICE and NYMEX stays slightly bullish even this morning after the indicator generated a buying signal on Friday. The RSI lost its supporting influence at the WTI and the Gasoil chart as it has already changed direction and orientates downward. The RSI at the Brent chart doesn't trigger any signal as a confirming buying signal will only be triggered by the breach of the 30%. The bullish factors decreased (RSI) and the predominating downward trend stays intact but we consider the technical constellation as neutral to bullish due to the still slightly supporting influnce of the stochastic indicator.

U.S.

Nymex above avarage: Futures slightly ease in early trading. Even though there were hardly any important signals the fundamentally bearish market situation weighs still on the futures. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average at this time of the day. Market players are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open and will eye the situation in the geopolitical hotspots and the economic indicators which are to be released today.

Forecast: Crude oil -1.0; Distillates -1.2; Gasoline +0.6 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 18-11)
380cst $458
180cst $526
MGO $821

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 18-11)
380cst $450
180cst $510
MGO $820

Singapore (delivered indications 18-11)

WTI is gaining with +$0.86 Singapore paper is up with +$4.40 for 180cst with +$4.50 for 380cst for Dec, and for Jan 180 cst +$4.00 and 380cst with +$3.85 with MGO contracts Dec bullish with +$1.06 and in Jan with +$1.09. The cargo market is losing with 180cst -$1.41, 380cst gaining with +$0.43 and MGO with +$0.72.

380cst $470
180cst $485
MGO $715

Fujairah (delivered indications 18-11)

380cst $465
180cst $509
MGO $920

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $418
(1.0 %) : $423
MGO 0.1%S: $693