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Market in Brief

Crude oil extended its fall yesterday. The November WTI contract slipped -$3.90 to close at $81.84/bbl and Brent similarly lost -$3.85 to settle at $85.04/bbl. Prices dropped after the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised lower its 2014 global Oil Demand forecast to 92.4M bpd in October (down -0.2M bpd from previous month). It was also noted that both OPEC and non- OPEC countries raised output, resulting in a production of 93.8M bpd in September. The increasing gap between OPEC’s members’ views and continuous increase in production diminishes the hopes that they will agree on a production cut for their next meeting at the end of November. In Europe Germany government slashed its growth forecast from 1,8% to 1,2% in 2014 and from 2% to 1,3% for next year. China's consumer inflation slowed more than expected in September to a near five-year low, adding to concerns that global growth is cooling fast unless governments take bolder measures to shore up their economies. On the economic data flow, the US September Retail Sales, September PPI, August Business Inventories and October Empire Manufacturing data will be publish later today. American Petroleum Institute (API) will issue its report later tonight and the EIA will follow tomorrow. This morning crude is trading app. -1,0% down.

Fuel oil specifics

The Northwest European bunker fuel oil prices closed another day with losses following falling Brent values. Delivered 380cst product in the main ports of Antwerp and Rotterdam was assessed app. $10/mt down compared to previous close. Suppliers reported subdued demand as most of buyers were reluctant to fix any volumes amidst falling prices. Product avails remain tight for prompt deliveries will it looks better for further out dates. The Singapore fuel oil prices were assessed only -$1/mt down during the Asian Platts window yesterday. This morning both markets are trading down.

Forward indications

Product	Nov	Dec	Jan	Q115	Q215	2015
NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month)	79,82	79,35	78,97	79,02	78,82	79,23
ICE Brent Swap (1st month)	84,51	84,95	85,40	86,30	87,59	90,49
ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month)	726,67	728,50	740,25	-	-	-
LS ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month)	-	-	-	745,33	754,69	759,20
3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm	440,00	439,25	444,00	447,75	456,00	459,25
3.5% Cargoes FOB Med	438,50	436,75	442,00	445,75	454,00	457,00
1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE	446,00	445,75	450,00	454,25	463,75	467,75
3% no. 6 USGC WB	69,35	69,25	69,60	70,13	71,26	72,23
380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore	466,25	466,00	468,00	471,00	477,50	481,50
0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm	726,25	728,25	739,25	734,25	744,25	748,25
Physical Rotterdam 380 CST	450,25	449,50	454,25	456,00	464,25	467,50
Physical Singapore 380 CST	476,50	476,25	478,25	479,25	485,75	489,75