---

Market in brief

After a weak start of the day, crude prices managed to settle slightly higher last Friday. The November WTI contract closed at $85.82/bbl, up +$0.05 while Brent inched +$0.16 to $90.21/bbl. Market drivers remain to favor strong supply amidst a weak demand . Libyan production is reported at 0.8 mbpd and may ramp up to 1.0 mbpd as the geopolitical tensions in Iraq have generally left production undisrupted. Market underlying fundamentals are likely to stay weak, unless a colder than expected winter and a possibility of OPEC intervening via a reduction of production will stem the current price weakness. Last week Iran announced to sell oil to Asia in November at the biggest discount in almost 6 years, matching the previous cuts by Saudi Arabia and fighting for market share. Kuwait’s oil minister reportedly said on Sunday that OPEC is unlikely to cut production to support falling prices. Supporting, Saudi officials have recently said that OPEC’s largest producer was comfortable with price level below $90/bbl, and maybe even down to $80/bbl, for a year or two. In the US, despite stronger economic data recently, the US Federal Reserve has signaled concerns over weaker economic growth elsewhere namely; the Eurozone and China which could delay a possible rate hike. This morning, China reported better than expected trade data with Exports rising 15.3% (11.8% exp.) in September from a year earlier while Imports were at 7% (2.7% exp.). However, the numbers did little to restore any market confidence and crude prices continue trading down. Please note that the US markets are closed for Columbus Day today and will reopen tomorrow.

Fuel oil specifics

The Northwest European bunker fuel oil markets closed the week with continuously tight avails for hsfo products. Suppliers were able to offer only small volumes though the situation is expected to improve during the week. Delivered 380cst product both in Antwerp and Rotterdam lost nearly $10 compared to previous close. The Singapore fuel oil prices plunged more than $17.5 during the Asian Platts window last Friday tracking crude drop. The delivered bunker premiums were seen $11.0-8.50 above cargo prices. This morning both markets are trading down.

Forward indications

Product	Nov	Dec	Jan	Q115	Q215	2015
NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month)	83,55	83,23	83,03	82,86	82,74	83,09
ICE Brent Swap (1st month)	89,00	89,49	90,01	90,91	91,58	92,23
ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month)	760,58	763,25	774,75	-	-	-
LS ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month)	-	-	-	780,75	789,11	792,80
3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm	469,75	468,50	472,75	475,75	482,25	484,50
3.5% Cargoes FOB Med	467,75	465,50	467,25	473,75	480,25	482,25
1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE	477,00	475,75	480,00	483,25	491,00	494,00
3% no. 6 USGC WB	73,70	73,58	73,83	74,28	75,13	75,95
380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore	496,75	495,75	497,25	499,25	504,25	507,00
0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm	760,25	762,25	774,25	769,25	778,25	781,25
Physical Rotterdam 380 CST	480,00	478,75	483,00	484,00	490,50	492,75
Physical Singapore 380 CST	507,00	506,00	507,50	507,50	512,50	515,25

Economic fundamentals this week

Statistic	Importance	Date	Time	Period	Consensus	Last	Actual
Retail Sales	High	15-Oct	8:30 AM	Sep	0.20%	0.60%	-
Core PPI	Medium	15-Oct	8:30 AM	Sep	0.10%	0.10%	-
Empire Manufacturing	Medium	15-Oct	8:30 AM	Oct	20	27.5	-
Business Inventories	Medium	15-Oct	10:00 AM	Aug	0.50%	0.40%	-
Intial Claims	Medium	16-Oct	8:30 AM	11-Oct	295K	287K	-
Industrial Production	Medium	16-Oct	9:15 AM	Sep	0.50%	-0.10%	-
Philadelphia Fed	Medium	16-Oct	10:00 AM	Oct	15	22.5	-
Housing Starts	Medium	17-Oct	8:30 AM	Sep	975K	956K	-
Building Permits	Medium	17-Oct	8:30 AM	Sep	1000K	998K	-
Michigan Sentiment	High	17-Oct	9:55 AM	Oct	83.5	84.6	-